Yardeni Research reiterated its optimistic long-term view for gold, maintaining price objectives of $6,000 by the end of this year and $10,000 by 2029, even after a sharp decline in prices over recent days.
The firm said these targets are rooted in its so-called "Roaring 2020s" scenario, in which equity market gains encourage investors to rebalance portfolios and move into alternative assets, including gold. That rebalancing dynamic remains central to Yardeni's forecast.
In laying out the case for continued upside, Yardeni highlighted a cluster of demand-side drivers. It expects central banks to persist in adding to official reserves, and it pointed to strong ongoing demand from Chinese investors, whom the firm described as having been "hard hit by the bursting of China’s property bubble and whipsawed by the Chinese stock market."
Yardeni also identified macro and geopolitical factors that it believes will provide steady structural support for the metal. The firm cited rising U.S. government debt levels, elevated global inflation and persistent geopolitical tensions as elements likely to sustain long-term demand for gold.
Addressing the recent correction, Yardeni said the pullback does not change its larger thesis. The firm allowed that the move lower could simply be profit-taking after a rapid climb, and noted that various sentiment indicators point toward the possibility that prices are forming a bottom.
Yardeni did signal some flexibility in its intermediate-term outlook: it said it could reduce its 2026 target to $5,000 if gold "continues to defy our expectations." Despite that caveat, the research house emphasized that the near-term weakness should be seen in the context of its broader scenario-based forecast.
Finally, the firm pointed to historical parallels as a supporting observation, noting that the pace of gold's rise since early last year bears similarity to the surge during the Carter administration, when prices peaked around the time Ronald Reagan took office.
Contextual note: Yardeni's conclusions rest on the specific drivers and scenarios it outlines; the firm framed the recent pullback as a potential correction rather than a signal to abandon its long-term targets.