Commodities March 20, 2026

Yardeni Maintains Bullish Gold Forecast Despite Recent Sell-Off

Research house keeps $6,000 and $10,000 targets amid pullback, citing portfolio rebalancing and structural demand drivers

By Jordan Park
Yardeni Maintains Bullish Gold Forecast Despite Recent Sell-Off

Yardeni Research reaffirmed a long-term bullish stance on gold, holding to targets of $6,000 by year-end and $10,000 by 2029. The firm said the outlook is grounded in its 'Roaring 2020s' scenario, where equity gains prompt investors to shift into alternatives such as gold. Yardeni cited ongoing central bank reserve accumulation, resilient Chinese investor demand, rising U.S. government debt, elevated global inflation and geopolitical tensions as support for sustained structural demand, and said a recent price correction does not alter the broader forecast.

Key Points

  • Yardeni Research retains targets of $6,000 by year-end and $10,000 by 2029 under its "Roaring 2020s" scenario, driven by portfolio rebalancing into alternatives like gold.
  • Primary demand supports cited include ongoing central bank reserve accumulation and strong Chinese investor demand amid stresses in China’s property and stock markets - affecting investment and financial market sectors.
  • Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors highlighted as structural support include rising U.S. government debt, higher global inflation and persistent geopolitical tensions, which influence fixed-income markets and investor safe-haven flows.

Yardeni Research reiterated its optimistic long-term view for gold, maintaining price objectives of $6,000 by the end of this year and $10,000 by 2029, even after a sharp decline in prices over recent days.

The firm said these targets are rooted in its so-called "Roaring 2020s" scenario, in which equity market gains encourage investors to rebalance portfolios and move into alternative assets, including gold. That rebalancing dynamic remains central to Yardeni's forecast.

In laying out the case for continued upside, Yardeni highlighted a cluster of demand-side drivers. It expects central banks to persist in adding to official reserves, and it pointed to strong ongoing demand from Chinese investors, whom the firm described as having been "hard hit by the bursting of China’s property bubble and whipsawed by the Chinese stock market."

Yardeni also identified macro and geopolitical factors that it believes will provide steady structural support for the metal. The firm cited rising U.S. government debt levels, elevated global inflation and persistent geopolitical tensions as elements likely to sustain long-term demand for gold.

Addressing the recent correction, Yardeni said the pullback does not change its larger thesis. The firm allowed that the move lower could simply be profit-taking after a rapid climb, and noted that various sentiment indicators point toward the possibility that prices are forming a bottom.

Yardeni did signal some flexibility in its intermediate-term outlook: it said it could reduce its 2026 target to $5,000 if gold "continues to defy our expectations." Despite that caveat, the research house emphasized that the near-term weakness should be seen in the context of its broader scenario-based forecast.

Finally, the firm pointed to historical parallels as a supporting observation, noting that the pace of gold's rise since early last year bears similarity to the surge during the Carter administration, when prices peaked around the time Ronald Reagan took office.


Contextual note: Yardeni's conclusions rest on the specific drivers and scenarios it outlines; the firm framed the recent pullback as a potential correction rather than a signal to abandon its long-term targets.

Risks

  • Yardeni noted the chance it could lower its 2026 target to $5,000 if gold "continues to defy our expectations," representing a risk to the baseline forecast and affecting investors positioned for the higher target.
  • Recent price weakness may reflect profit-taking; continued short-term selling could delay or alter the timeline to the firm’s targets, posing risks to market participants and portfolio strategies.
  • The firm's outlook depends on assumptions about central bank reserve purchases and sustained Chinese investor demand; if those flows do not materialize as expected, structural demand assumptions could be undermined, impacting the precious metals market and related financial sectors.

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