Overview
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released projections indicating a tilt toward soybean production in 2026 and a pullback in corn acreage. Despite the shift in planting intentions, the USDA expects both crops to produce their second-largest harvests on record, assuming normal weather conditions.
Acreage projections
The USDA forecast U.S. corn plantings at 94 million acres for 2026, down from an 89-year high of 98.8 million acres in 2025. Soybean seedings were projected to increase to 85 million acres, up from 81.2 million acres last year. These acreage changes signal producers responding to market and cost signals while still operating within the broader constraints of crop rotation and field-level decisions.
Economic pressures on growers
Producers face a decision environment shaped by a global supply surplus, soft crop prices and higher input costs for items such as seed and fertilizer. The USDA projects U.S. farm income will decline by 0.7 percent even as government payments remain near record levels and account for nearly 29 percent of producers' revenue. Many Midwest operators alternate corn and soybeans by field to sustain soil health, but some acres may depart from traditional rotation patterns if profit opportunities warrant a change.
Market context for corn
The USDA's corn acreage forecast came in below the average estimate of 94.9 million acres in an analyst poll. Analysts note that low corn prices and ample supplies following a record U.S. crop in 2025 are likely to dampen incentives for acreage expansion. Nevertheless, demand from exporters and ethanol biofuel producers is expected to restrain a more pronounced reduction in plantings.
Market context for soybeans
Soybean seedings exceeded the average estimate of 84.9 million acres in the same analyst poll. Acreage increases are projected despite ongoing trade tensions with China and strong export competition from Brazil, where farmers are harvesting a likely record crop. Domestic demand for soybean oil from renewable fuel makers has provided price support, creating a floor for soybean values and encouraging higher seedings.
Projected production and stocks
Assuming ordinary weather, the USDA projected the 2026 U.S. corn harvest at 15.755 billion bushels and the soybean harvest at 4.450 billion bushels. After accounting for demand from exporters, livestock feeders and biofuel producers, ending U.S. corn stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year - on August 31, 2027 - were forecast at 1.837 billion bushels. That figure would be down from a seven-year high of 2.127 billion bushels a year earlier. Soybean stocks at the close of the 2026/27 season were projected to rise slightly to 355 million bushels from 350 million bushels at the end of 2025/26.
Trade and demand projections
The USDA expected 2026/27 corn exports to total 3.1 billion bushels, a decrease of 200 million bushels from 2025/26, citing rising competition from South American suppliers. In contrast, soybean exports were forecast to increase by 125 million bushels to a two-year high of 1.7 billion bushels. Crushing demand - the volume processed into soymeal for livestock feed and soyoil for food and biofuel - was projected at a record 2.655 billion bushels.
Wheat outlook
Wheat ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year were forecast at 933 million bushels, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. The USDA attributed that near-stability to lower U.S. exports offsetting a decline in domestic production, as bumper crops in other suppliers such as Argentina and Australia weigh on global trade. U.S. wheat exports for 2026/27 were projected at 850 million bushels, down 50 million from the current marketing year.
This analysis reports the USDA's projections and the market factors the agency cited in its outlook.