UBS has increased its copper price forecasts by $500 per metric ton across all horizons, now projecting the metal will trade at $15,000 per metric ton by the end of March 2027. The investment bank continues to take a bullish stance on copper and advises investors to keep long positions in the metal.
Despite the firm ullish view on an annual basis, UBS signals some caution for the near term. The recent uptick in copper prices has paused, and the bank expects elevated price levels to remain through 2026. Seasonal weakness linked to the Chinese Lunar New Year is cited as a contributor to expected consolidation in the coming weeks.
UBS updated its supply and demand outlook using the latest available data and made targeted revisions to its deficit estimates. For 2025, the bank now forecasts a slightly smaller shortfall of about 200,000 metric tons, down from a prior estimate of 230,000 metric tons. The change to the 2025 deficit is modest but reflects the latest inputs the bank has incorporated.
Looking to 2026, UBS has widened its projected deficit substantially. The firm now expects a gap of 520,000 metric tons in 2026, up from an earlier forecast of 407,000 metric tons. UBS explicitly links this larger supply shortfall to its more bullish price outlook for copper, describing the widening gap as a key underpinning of the higher price target.
In guidance to clients, UBS recommends maintaining long exposure to copper given the revised supply and demand fundamentals. The bankxpects price levels to remain elevated through 2026, even as short-term consolidation proceeds. UBSorecasts reflect the combination of a deeper 2026 deficit and persistent upward pressure on the industrial metal.
Summary
UBS raised copper forecasts by $500/mt and now targets $15,000/mt by end-March 2027, based on a wider 2026 supply deficit and sustained elevated prices through 2026. The bank advises holding long positions while noting near-term consolidation risks tied to seasonal Chinese market activity.