Commodities October 2, 2026 05:11 AM

Tehran says it has received US reply to ceasefire offer as Washington pulls final troops from Iraq

Iran reports a US response to its proposal to restore a collapsed truce in the Gulf, while the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq is hailed as a victory by Tehran and its allies

By Caleb Monroe
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Iran on Sept 30 said it had received a US response to a recent proposal aimed at reviving a collapsed ceasefire in the Gulf, even after President Donald Trump publicly said he had rejected the offer. The development coincided with the announced withdrawal of the last US troops from bases in Iraq, a move celebrated by Iran and its allied groups and viewed by Tehran as advancing its objective of pushing American forces from the region. The proposal from Iran would see the United States lift its blockade of Iranian ports in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, amid continuing disruptions to energy flows and maritime security incidents.

Tehran says it has received US reply to ceasefire offer as Washington pulls final troops from Iraq
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Key Points

  • Iran says it received a US response to its ceasefire proposal that would lift the blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days; differences remain over sequencing.
  • The United States completed the withdrawal of its remaining forces from bases in Iraq, a move celebrated by Iran and its allied armed groups and described as a defeat for US objectives in the country.
  • Maritime security and energy flows are materially affected - shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has risen with higher fees, but flows of crude oil, refined products and natural gas remain substantially disrupted; recent attacks have included projectiles striking two ships.

Tehran reports US response amid troop pullout from Iraq

Iran said on Sept 30 that it had received a response from the United States to its most recent proposal to revive a ceasefire in the Gulf, a development that came days after President Donald Trump said he had rejected the plan. The announcement arrived as Washington completed the withdrawal of its remaining forces from Iraq, a move that was met with celebration by Iran and its regional allies.

Iranian officials described the step as a success for what Tehran calls its "axis of resistance" - a network of allied armed groups - and as a milestone toward the broader Iranian aim of expelling US forces from the region. The withdrawal from Iraqi bases was made public on Wednesday, completing a plan agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and implemented by the administration of Donald Trump during its campaign against Iran next door.


Details of the ceasefire proposal and US response

Last week Iran tabled a proposal under which the United States would lift its blockade of Iranian ports and, in return, Iran would reopen the disrupted Strait of Hormuz within seven days. President Trump said on Sunday that he had rejected the proposal, while Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier said Tehran had not received a formal rejection.

On Wednesday an Iranian government spokesperson posted on X that Araqchi had delivered a US response to the Iranian government. The statement did not provide the full text of that reply in public remarks, but it followed reporting that Qatari mediators had been shuttling between US and Iranian envoys in New York on the sidelines of a United Nations meeting.

An official briefed on those talks, who was not Iranian and spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the Qataris had briefed Araqchi on the US response when he stopped in Doha after leaving New York. According to that official, both sides broadly agree on the measures that are required to implement a deal but still differ over the sequencing of steps.


Maritime security and energy flows remain strained

Tehran's plan envisions an interim agreement meant to restore a truce that collapsed weeks after it was signed in June by President Trump and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran wants an eventual accord to give it control over the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping route that runs past its coast.

Shipping activity through the strait has risen in recent weeks, with carriers charging elevated fees to compensate for the risk of attacks. Nevertheless, the movement of crude oil, refined products and natural gas continues to be substantially disrupted. In the latest maritime incidents, Britain's UKMTO maritime security body reported on Wednesday that two vessels had been struck by projectiles the previous day.


US withdrawal from Iraq

US and Iraqi officials announced on Wednesday that the last American troops had left bases in Iraq. The pullout completed a plan agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and carried out by the Trump administration while it pursues a war with Iran next door. The departure was celebrated by Iran and its allied militias.

Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq - an umbrella for Iran-backed armed groups - described the withdrawal as an "historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project."

The United States invaded Iraq in 2003. The conflict and its aftermath have left deep scars: according to statements cited by Tehran, 4,500 US troops died in what was described as the biggest US war of the century, and more than 200,000 Iraqi civilians were killed amid the chaos that followed the toppling of dictator Saddam Hussein.


Proxy dynamics and regional strikes

Iran has built wide political and military influence in Iraq, a country with a Shi'ite majority. Iraq has at times served as a proxy battleground between the United States and Iran. Washington holds Iran-backed groups in Iraq responsible for attacks on neighbouring countries, including an operation that damaged a major Saudi oil pipeline three weeks ago.

Of the 18 US service members listed as killed since Mr. Trump launched "Operation Epic Fury" in February, seven died in Iraq. The US withdrawal raises concerns that Iran's proxies may feel emboldened without a Western military presence, possibly seeking to expand their influence over state institutions, according to Baghdad-based analyst Ahmed Younis.


Political reverberations in the United States

The war has been unpopular among US voters since its outset according to domestic polling, and disruption to global energy supplies has contributed to higher fuel prices. Those economic impacts have affected the political landscape for Republicans aligned with President Trump as they seek to retain control of both houses of Congress in legislative elections five weeks away.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps urged American voters to remove allies of President Trump, publishing a 26-page letter urging US citizens to "Remove from power the evil, deceitful, and violent politicians who are responsible for America’s current state" and warning that the world has changed.

Despite economic pressures and domestic strains inside Iran, Tehran has continued to conduct strikes that threaten neighbouring states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one fifth of global oil transited before the outbreak of the war. President Trump said on Tuesday that he expected the conflict to end soon and that Iran would eventually capitulate, telling reporters: "I don’t know if they are going to give up yet but they’ll give up. They are doing very poorly."


What is known and what remains unresolved

The public record shows that Iran says it has now received a US response to its ceasefire proposal and that both sides have engaged through Qatari intermediaries. It is also clear that the United States has completed the withdrawal of its troops from Iraqi bases, a development hailed by Iran and allied militias. Several details remain limited in public statements: the full content of the US response relayed to Tehran was not released, and negotiators reportedly remain at odds over the sequence in which agreed steps would be implemented.

The situation continues to affect maritime security and energy flows in a key oil-exporting region, and it has immediate political implications both inside Iraq and in the United States.

Risks

  • Iran-backed militias in Iraq may feel emboldened by the US withdrawal and could seek to expand their influence over state institutions - risk to regional security and defence markets.
  • Ongoing disruptions to shipments of crude oil, refined products and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz could continue to push higher shipping costs and strain global energy supplies - risk to energy and shipping sectors.
  • Uncertainty about the sequencing and implementation of any interim agreement between Iran and the US creates instability in negotiations and may prolong maritime incidents - risk to commodities markets and geopolitical stability.

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