Farmers across the United States and Canada entered spring planting already braced for another difficult year, and the interruption of trade stemming from the conflict in Iran has compounded those worries by tightening fertilizer supplies and pushing prices sharply higher.
Industry figures show retail costs have surged by more than a third since shipping from the Persian Gulf was disrupted, and the U.S. fertilizer pipeline - which in some years relies on imports for roughly half of its urea supply - is reported to be about 25% below the normal volumes farmers would expect to purchase ahead of spring planting, according to The Fertilizer Institute, the trade group that represents the U.S. fertilizer supply chain.
Analysts warn the situation could deteriorate if material bound for the United States is diverted to markets that will pay a premium. Josh Linville, a fertilizer market analyst at StoneX, highlighted a price discrepancy at the U.S. Gulf entrance point, saying the New Orleans market - where most offshore U.S. imports arrive and set prices - is trading at as much as $119 per metric ton below global levels.
"Not only am I worried about incoming vessels being turned around to other, better-paying destinations, there’s an argument to be made, if somebody was willing to go and buy up (supply on) barges, to load them onto a vessel and export it," Linville said.
At the farm level, the shortage is already being felt. Retail outlets that traditionally stock spring-applied fertilizer are reporting empty shelves or are offering supplies at premiums that put the product out of reach for some growers. Saskatchewan farmer David Altrogge said his broker told him a local dealer had stopped providing prices because of the shortage.
"It sends shivers down your spine," Altrogge said. He purchased his urea in December; had he bought it at current retail rates, the cost would have been C$44,000 - equivalent to $32,069.97.
Altrogge noted that some farmers in his region are now confronting either that steep price increase or the prospect of not being able to obtain needed fertilizer at all.
The immediate cause of the disruption is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to routine fertilizer shipments. The strait is a key transit point: more than 30% of world nitrogen fertilizer exports - and related components such as sulfur - typically pass through the waterway. With that route disrupted, supplies that would normally flow to global markets have been sharply curtailed.
Unlike certain countries that maintain strategic storage, most nations do not hold large fertilizer reserves, and many U.S. fertilizer dealers operate on minimal inventories. That combination leaves the system vulnerable to rapid, supply-driven price moves.
"It’s not like there’s a whole lot of fertilizer sitting on the shelf," said Veronica Nigh, an economist at The Fertilizer Institute. "It’s very much a just-in-time business model."
The time element is critical. Fertilizer shipped from the Persian Gulf can take weeks to reach consumer markets such as the United States, after which it typically must be transshipped to river barges, trucks or trains to reach farm distribution points. Because the majority of fertilizer must be applied before crops begin to grow, any shipments that arrive too late will not be usable for the 2026 crop season.
Concerns about the broader food supply have been raised publicly. The American Farm Bureau Federation warned that shortages of fertilizer could affect the U.S. food supply. Separately, Senator Josh Hawley requested that Attorney General Pam Bondi investigate whether fertilizer companies were engaging in price gouging. Hawley pointed to price gains of as much as 32% since the onset of the Iran conflict and wrote to major fertilizer producers seeking explanations for the increases.
The combination of constrained maritime routes, a supply chain built on low dealer inventories, and a sizable premium available in some global markets creates multiple pressure points for North American agriculture. For growers who have already secured product, the disruption translates into higher input costs that squeeze margins. For those who have not yet purchased spring fertilizer, empty retail channels and elevated prices pose the possibility of reduced applications or delayed planting decisions.
Market participants and policymakers are watching two main dynamics: whether inbound vessels will be redirected to other destinations offering higher returns, and whether retailer inventories will be replenished in time to meet spring demand. How those dynamics evolve will determine whether current shortages remain a short-term shock or translate into broader impacts on planting and crop production for 2026.