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Commodities March 16, 2026

Shell Sees LNG Demand Rising Sharply Through Mid-Century, Calls for More Supply Investment

Company projects liquefied natural gas volumes could climb as much as 85% by 2050 from 2025 levels, driven mainly by Asia

By Ajmal Hussain
Shell Sees LNG Demand Rising Sharply Through Mid-Century, Calls for More Supply Investment

Shell has released forecasts indicating a substantial increase in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand from a 2025 baseline of 422 million metric tons per annum (MTPA). The energy major expects demand to reach between 650 and 710 MTPA by 2040 and between 610 and 780 MTPA by 2050, and warns that additional supply investment will be necessary in the 2030s and 2040s even to meet the lower end of long-term scenarios.

Key Points

  • Shell forecasts LNG demand to increase from 422 MTPA in 2025 to 650-710 MTPA by 2040 and 610-780 MTPA by 2050 - representing 54-68% growth by 2040 and 45-85% by 2050.
  • Asia is expected to drive roughly 70% of LNG demand growth to 2040, concentrating demand growth in the region and affecting regional energy markets and trade flows.
  • Shell says further supply investment will be necessary during the 2030s and 2040s to meet even the lower end of its 2050 demand range; the company views its assets as competitively placed on the industry cost curve.

Overview

Shell has outlined a range of long-term forecasts for global liquefied natural gas demand, using a 2025 baseline of 422 million metric tons per annum (MTPA). The company projects demand will be 54-68% higher by 2040 and 45-85% higher by 2050 relative to that baseline.

Specific demand ranges

In numerical terms, Shell expects LNG consumption to rise from 422 MTPA in 2025 to between 650 MTPA and 710 MTPA by 2040. Looking further ahead, the firm forecasts a range of between 610 MTPA and 780 MTPA by 2050.

Supply-side implications

The company warned that further investment in supply will be required in the 2030s and 2040s to meet even the lower bound of its 2050 demand forecast. Shell noted that its current LNG facilities along with new developments are positioned competitively in the lower half of the industry cost curve.

Regional drivers

Shell identified Asia as the primary engine of demand growth through 2040, estimating that the region will account for 70% of the increase in LNG consumption to that point.

Role of LNG within the broader energy mix

According to Shell, LNG currently represents 14% of global natural gas supply and equates to just over 3% of total primary energy supply. The company expects LNG's share of primary energy to rise to over 4% by 2040 and to remain around that level in 2050.

Geopolitics and reporting decisions

Shell said it has chosen not to publish its annual LNG Outlook 2026 because of the uncertain geopolitical situation and out of consideration for its partners in the Middle East. The company stated that the Middle East conflict has produced high levels of volatility in prices but that it retains a positive long-term view of LNG demand.

Outlook for global gas consumption

Shell also indicated that global gas consumption may peak in the 2030s and that consumption has already peaked in some regions, including Europe and Japan. Despite that, the firm expects LNG demand to continue rising at least through 2040.

Note: The facts and numerical forecasts reported above are as stated by the company.

Risks

  • Geopolitical volatility - Shell cites uncertainty related to the Middle East conflict, which has driven high price volatility and influenced the decision not to publish its 2026 LNG Outlook; this affects energy markets and price stability.
  • Supply adequacy risk - Meeting projected demand through 2050 will require additional investment in the 2030s and 2040s, posing execution and financing risks for the energy sector and capital markets.
  • Concentration of demand - With Asia expected to account for 70% of demand growth to 2040, regional disruptions or policy changes could materially affect global LNG trade and shipping sectors.

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