Russian oil revenues plunged to a five-year low in January as three concurrent forces compressed receipts: lower international crude prices, sharply wider discounts for Russia's Urals grade at export points, and a stronger ruble.
Tax and sector receipts
Oil-related tax income fell by half to 281.7 billion rubles ($3.7 billion) compared with January 2025. When oil and gas are combined, revenues also fell 50% to 393.3 billion rubles. Those two sectors account for roughly a quarter of Russia's budget, underscoring the significance of the decline.
Price movements and discounts
Global benchmarks were lower: Brent oil futures were 15% down year-on-year for the fiscal period. The effect on Russia was amplified by U.S. sanctions. January's oil revenue hit the lowest point since June 2020.
At export hubs, Urals crude traded at about $26 per barrel below Dated Brent. That discount has widened significantly from roughly $12 below the benchmark a year earlier, according to data from Argus Media. The expansion of the Urals discount followed the U.S. blacklisting of Russia's two largest producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, announced in October.
Government calculations versus budget assumptions
Russia's finance ministry based its oil-revenue calculation on Urals averaging $39.18 per barrel in December, a 38% decline from the prior year. That computed average sits well under the government's fiscal planning assumption of $59 per barrel for 2026.
Context limitations
The figures above reflect official revenue calculations and market discounts cited by industry data. The report does not provide further breakdowns of taxation components, ruble exchange-rate metrics, or prospective policy responses.