Commodities March 11, 2026

Russian crude output edges down in February amid export pressure to India

Production falls by roughly 56,000 bpd to 9.184 million bpd; limited recovery in shipments to India follows a short US waiver

By Maya Rios
Russian crude output edges down in February amid export pressure to India

Russian oil production slipped by about 56,000 barrels per day in February versus January, settling at 9.184 million barrels per day, according to OPEC monthly data reviewed by Reuters. The decline comes as exports to India fell under US pressure but showed early signs of recovery after Washington granted a 30-day waiver for Indian refiners to receive Russian cargoes loaded by March 5. Russia remains the world’s third-largest oil producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Key Points

  • Russian oil production fell by about 56,000 bpd in February to 9.184 million bpd, per OPEC monthly data reviewed by Reuters.
  • Exports to India decreased due to pressure from the United States, but shipments began recovering after Washington issued a 30-day waiver for Indian refiners covering cargoes loaded by March 5.
  • Russia remains the world’s third-largest oil producer after the United States and Saudi Arabia; the waiver was intended to help offset a global oil squeeze linked to the Iran war.

OPEC monthly data reviewed by Reuters indicates that Russian crude output contracted by roughly 56,000 barrels per day in February compared with January, leaving production at 9.184 million barrels per day. The figures underline a modest downward movement in output during the month.

Despite Western sanctions imposed over Ukraine, Russia has largely maintained steady production levels. The February decline, while measurable, does not represent a substantial interruption to overall output when viewed against the country’s regular production scale.

Trade flows from Russia to India - the country’s second-largest buyer after China - fell amid external pressure from the United States. The dip in exports to India reflected that pressure, though sales began to show signs of recovery from February onward.

The early recovery in shipments followed a temporary measure from Washington: a 30-day waiver permitting Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil loaded on vessels as of March 5. The waiver was framed as a response intended to help ease a global oil squeeze linked to the Iran war.

Russia continues to occupy the position of the world’s third-largest oil producer, trailing only the United States and Saudi Arabia in total output.


Context and market implications

The modest production fall in February underscores two concurrent dynamics noted in the data: stable overall production despite sanctions, and more volatile trade patterns driven by geopolitical and diplomatic pressures. The temporary US waiver that allowed Indian refiners to accept certain Russian cargoes introduced a limited relief mechanism for buyers and helped restart some flows that had been disrupted.

Because the waiver covered cargoes loaded by a specific date - March 5 - its effects are time-bound. That constraint, together with ongoing sanction-related pressures, leaves the near-term trade picture subject to further shifts.

The figures and developments in the data should be read as changes in flows and short-term policy responses rather than as evidence of a structural change in Russian production capacity.

Risks

  • Sanctions-related pressures on exports could continue to disrupt trade flows, affecting refining margins and crude supply routes - impacting the oil trading and refining sectors.
  • The 30-day waiver for Indian refiners is temporary and tied to cargoes loaded by a specific date, creating uncertainty over the durability of the recent recovery in shipments to India - affecting buyers and import-dependent refiners.
  • Geopolitical developments tied to the Iran war, which the waiver seeks to mitigate, could maintain or intensify global supply pressures and market volatility - affecting broader energy markets.

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