Commodities March 7, 2026

RBC Keeps Bullish Stance on Copper as Prices Rise Despite Inventory Buildup

Analysts point to multiple expansion driven by investors' shift into hard assets and expectations of future supply deficits

By Ajmal Hussain
RBC Keeps Bullish Stance on Copper as Prices Rise Despite Inventory Buildup

RBC Capital Markets says valuations for copper miners have climbed markedly since December, even as warehouse stocks have swelled. EV/EBITDA at spot prices for its coverage has risen about 20% and P/NAV roughly 10%, while copper itself is up about 14% year-to-date. The bank cites a so-called "halo trade" into commodities, seasonal and price-sensitive inventory builds, and a view that supply deficits and a potential rebound in Chinese demand will support prices going forward.

Key Points

  • Valuation expansion - EV/EBITDA at spot prices for RBC’s coverage rose about 20% since December; P/NAV multiples increased roughly 10%.
  • Copper price performance - The metal is up about 14% year-to-date, briefly peaking at $6.48 per pound before settling around $6.10 per pound.
  • Sector dynamics - Winners such as Lundin Mining, Hudbay Minerals and Freeport-McMoRan outperformed due to higher precious metals exposure and company-specific factors, while Capstone Copper, First Quantum Minerals and Ivanhoe Mines lagged due to guidance, operational or project issues.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets report that investor appetite for copper mining equities has strengthened in recent months, pushing valuation multiples appreciably higher. The bank notes the move followed a volatile start to 2026 and attributes much of the shift to investors rotating into tangible assets and commodities.

RBC said that since December, EV/EBITDA valuations at spot prices across its coverage universe have climbed about 20%, while price-to-net asset value - P/NAV - multiples are up by roughly 10%. The firm described part of the market behavior as a "halo trade," where market participants seek broader exposure to hard assets and commodities rather than remaining concentrated in other sectors.

Copper prices have also strengthened this year. RBC highlighted that the metal is up about 14% year-to-date, noting a brief intraday high at $6.48 per pound before prices eased as buyers pushed back on elevated levels. Prices later returned to about $6.10 per pound, according to the bank.

That rebound in pricing has occurred amid a substantial rise in inventories. RBC reported that stocks have increased nearly 60% year-to-date to about 1.2 million tonnes. The bank attributed the inventory accumulation partly to seasonal factors and demand that is sensitive to higher prices. It also flagged that around 600,000 tonnes of copper inventories in the United States were gathered in 2025 ahead of potential tariffs - a position that could act as a headwind if those stocks are re-exported into global markets.

Despite the inventory build, RBC remains constructive on copper's medium-term outlook. The bank points toward expectations of growing supply deficits in the years ahead and a possible rebound in Chinese demand after the Lunar New Year period as supporting factors for prices.

Performance across copper producers has not been uniform. RBC identified Lundin Mining, Hudbay Minerals and Freeport-McMoRan as notable outperformers this year, attributing their relative strength in part to greater exposure to precious metals and company-specific drivers. Conversely, Capstone Copper, First Quantum Minerals and Ivanhoe Mines have underperformed, the bank said, citing weaker guidance, operational challenges or project-specific uncertainties.

RBC also noted that the sector's improving free cash flow outlook could underpin further multiple expansion. Even with recent gains, mining stocks still trade at a discount versus the broader equity market, the bank said, leaving room for additional valuation re-rating if cash generation continues to improve.


Implications for markets: The developments influence mining equities, commodities markets and investors seeking hard-asset exposure. Shifts in inventories and company-level operational outcomes could affect relative performance within the sector.

Risks

  • Inventory overhang - Inventories have risen nearly 60% year-to-date to about 1.2 million tonnes, which could weigh on prices and mining margins.
  • U.S. stockpile re-exports - Around 600,000 tonnes accumulated in the United States in 2025 ahead of potential tariffs could become a headwind if those stocks are exported back into global markets.
  • Company-level execution - Weaker guidance, operational disruptions or project-specific uncertainties have already led to underperformance for some producers and could continue to create dispersion in returns.

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