OPEC+ will consider a larger-than-expected boost to oil output at a meeting on Sunday after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stopped following warnings from Iran, according to two OPEC+ sources. The discussion comes as a U.S.-Israeli war on OPEC+ member Iran and Tehran's retaliatory actions have coincided with disruptions to tanker movements in the region.
Delegates will debate a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day or more, a figure substantially above earlier expectations of a 137,000 bpd rise, the sources said. The meeting is scheduled to start at 1100 GMT and will include only eight OPEC+ members - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman. While OPEC+ technically includes a broader set of countries, most production decisions in recent years have been driven by this smaller group.
Oil markets already reacted to the disruption: prices jumped to $73 per barrel on Friday, the highest level since July, as traders worried that a wider conflict and the stoppage of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz - which accounts for over 20% of global oil transit - could tighten supply.
Analysts and market commentators have flagged the constrained ability of most OPEC+ members to rapidly add incremental barrels. According to veteran OPEC analyst Helima Croft of RBC, Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could push prices above $100 per barrel. Barclays analysts have also said prices could rise to $100. Croft added that any large output increase from OPEC would likely have limited market impact because, outside Saudi Arabia, there is a shortage of real spare production capacity.
Sources said Riyadh has been increasing output and exports in recent weeks in preparation for possible U.S. strikes on Iran. Market participants note that, historically, OPEC+ has used output increases to soften the effect of regional disruptions, but current physical production constraints mean most of the burden falls on the groups few members with available capacity.
Before pausing increases for January through March 2026 due to seasonal weakness, the eight members had raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd for the April-December 2025 period, equivalent to roughly 3% of global demand. That prior wave of quota increases illustrates how production settings have shifted in recent months, though it also underscores the limited remaining headroom for additional supply unless the countries with spare capacity step up.
With the meeting set to focus on a substantial uplift in quotas, markets will be watching for whether commitments translate into actual barrels in the near term and how oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz evolve as the geopolitical situation unfolds.