OPEC's latest monthly oil report projects a reduction in global demand for crude supplied by the extended OPEC+ group in the second quarter of this year. The organization forecasts an average requirement of 42.20 million barrels per day (bpd) for OPEC+ crude in Q2, down from the 42.60 million bpd it estimated for the first quarter - a decline of 400,000 bpd. These quarterly estimates are unchanged from those published in last month’s edition of the report.
The OPEC+ arrangement - which includes members of OPEC alongside Russia and other allied producers - began increasing output last year after a period of coordinated cuts. However, that programme of production hikes was put on hold during the first quarter of 2026 amid expectations of a supply surplus.
Eight members of the OPEC+ group are scheduled to meet on March 1. That session is expected to address whether to resume the previously planned rises in output starting in April.
On longer-term demand, OPEC maintained forecasts indicating that world oil demand will increase by 1.38 million bpd this year and by 1.34 million bpd in 2027. The report notes that the 2026 forecast stands higher than those of other analysts, such as the International Energy Agency.
On the supply side, OPEC reported that OPEC+ production in January 2026 averaged 42.45 million bpd. That figure represents a decline of 439,000 bpd compared with December 2025, with the report attributing the drop to lower output in Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela and Iran.
Context and implications
OPEC's unchanged quarterly and annual projections, combined with the pause in production increases in Q1 2026, leave the near-term trajectory of output dependent on the outcome of the March 1 meeting. The group's January production data reflect recent output declines concentrated in a small set of members.
The report's numerical outlooks - including the 400,000 bpd Q2 reduction and the stated annual demand increases - are presented without revision from the prior month, and the organization again highlights a difference between its 2026 forecast and that of other forecasters.