OPEC+ is likely to discuss a 137,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) increase in oil production for April as it contemplates ending a three-month halt to incremental output rises, three sources with direct knowledge of the group’s thinking said. The potential adjustment is being weighed as the group prepares for peak summer demand and in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and OPEC member Iran that have supported crude prices.
Those sources indicated the resumption of modest production increases would allow leading producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to reclaim market share at a time when several OPEC+ participants face constraints. The sources said Russia and Iran continue to contend with Western sanctions, and Kazakh production is recovering from a series of setbacks, factors that influence the group’s market-calibration decisions.
Eight OPEC+ producers are scheduled to meet on March 1 to review supply policy. The meeting will include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, according to the sources.
In a related development, two sources familiar with Saudi plans said the kingdom has activated a contingency to temporarily raise oil output and exports if a U.S. military strike on Iran were to interrupt crude flows from the Middle East. The activation of that plan is described by the sources as a precautionary measure to mitigate potential disruptions to global supply.
Requests for comment were sent to OPEC and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia; those parties did not reply immediately, according to the sources.
Taken together, the reported April production proposal and Saudi Arabia’s contingency planning reflect OPEC+ efforts to balance market share objectives, seasonal demand dynamics and geopolitical risks. The prospective April increase would end a three-month pause in incremental output rises without introducing any of the numbers or outcomes not specified by the sources.
The information in this report is based on the accounts provided by the named sources and the descriptions of scheduled meetings and plans as conveyed to those sources. Where details are limited in the available accounts, this article reflects those limitations rather than extending beyond them.