Commodities February 9, 2026

Oil Retreats Slightly as Markets Weigh U.S.-Iran Friction and Upcoming Economic Data

Crude pares gains from prior session amid maritime advisory and waits on U.S. and China inflation and jobs prints

By Caleb Monroe
Oil Retreats Slightly as Markets Weigh U.S.-Iran Friction and Upcoming Economic Data

Oil prices dipped in Asian trading as investors tempered a prior session rally while monitoring renewed friction between the U.S. and Iran and awaiting key economic data from the United States and China. Brent and WTI slipped marginally, supported earlier by a softer dollar but pressured by caution over geopolitical developments and imminent U.S. payrolls and CPI releases.

Key Points

  • Oil pared some gains from the previous session as traders monitored U.S.-Iran tensions and awaited economic data.
  • Brent for April fell 0.1% to $68.99 a barrel and WTI fell 0.2% to $64.06 a barrel by 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT).
  • Important economic releases due this week - U.S. nonfarm payrolls and CPI, and China CPI ahead of Lunar New Year - are expected to affect demand and interest-rate expectations.

Oil markets eased in Asian hours on Tuesday, giving back part of the gains recorded in the previous session as traders focused on the possibility of renewed tensions between the United States and Iran and on a slate of important economic releases due later in the week.

Market participants had pushed prices higher in the prior session, with crude jumping by more than 1% after reports indicated the U.S. was taking a more cautious stance toward Iran. Those developments largely offset positive signals from talks held between the two countries over the weekend.

A softer dollar earlier in trading lent some support to commodity prices, although the greenback recovered slightly on Tuesday. By 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), Brent futures for April were down 0.1% at $68.99 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures were 0.2% lower at $64.06 a barrel.


U.S. maritime advisory raises concerns

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration issued guidance for U.S.-flagged vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, advising them to keep as much distance as possible from Iranian territory. The agency recommended that U.S.-flagged ships remain close to Oman during the crossing, citing risks of being boarded by Iranian forces.

The advisory heightened worries that tensions between Washington and Tehran could persist despite reports that the two countries had made progress in weekend discussions and intended to continue talks on Iran’s nuclear program. At the same time, Iran largely rejected calls to halt its nuclear enrichment, a central point of disagreement with the United States.


Economic data in focus

Investors are also watching key economic readings from the world’s largest oil consumers, which are expected to influence demand expectations. In the United States, the nonfarm payrolls report for January is due on Wednesday, and consumer price index data are scheduled for Friday. These prints are anticipated to inform the outlook for U.S. interest rates, a consideration that has gained attention amid a looming leadership change at the Federal Reserve.

China, the world’s largest oil importer, will publish its consumer price index on Friday, just before the start of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Analysts and market participants expect travel and fuel consumption in China to rise during the holiday period, which could affect short-term demand.


Overall, the market remains sensitive to both geopolitical signals and near-term demand indicators, with traders balancing recent gains against a return to caution as fresh information emerges.

Risks

  • Geopolitical tensions: The U.S. maritime advisory for vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman highlights the risk that U.S.-Iran relations remain strained, which could disrupt shipping and affect oil market sentiment - impacting energy and shipping sectors.
  • Policy and demand uncertainty: Upcoming U.S. payrolls and CPI readings could shift expectations for U.S. interest rates and influence oil demand projections - affecting financial markets and energy-sensitive sectors.
  • Chinese demand variability: China’s CPI print and the timing of the Lunar New Year travel surge create uncertainty around short-term fuel consumption in the world’s largest oil importer - affecting refining and transport fuel markets.

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