Commodities March 9, 2026

Oil retreats after volatile session as Trump signals potential de-escalation and supply measures

Brent and WTI fall sharply after a wild Monday that saw prices near $120, with comments from U.S. President on Iran conflict and waivers calming markets

By Nina Shah
Oil retreats after volatile session as Trump signals potential de-escalation and supply measures

Oil prices eased in early Asian trading after a turbulent session the previous day. Markets pared sharp gains following U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments that an end to the Iran conflict may be near and his reference to measures that could mitigate crude supply disruption, including potential waivers on sanctioned oil sales.

Key Points

  • Oil fell in early Asian trading after a volatile prior session as President Trump signaled a potential end to the Iran conflict and discussed measures to offset supply disruptions.
  • Brent futures for May were down 7.4% to $91.68 a barrel and WTI futures fell 6.7% to $85.27 a barrel by 20:27 ET (00:05 GMT).
  • Supply considerations include recent strikes on Iranian energy facilities, retaliatory attacks on regional oil infrastructure and ships, and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global crude shipments.

Oil prices moved lower in early Asian trade on Tuesday, retreating from extremes recorded during a volatile session the previous day as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump eased some concerns about prolonged supply disruption.

Markets experienced a dramatic swing on Monday. Crude briefly climbed to nearly $120 a barrel before reversing course and slipping back below $90 a barrel by the close. Attention remained focused on developments in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which entered its eleventh consecutive day on Tuesday.

By 20:27 ET (00:05 GMT), Brent futures for May were down 7.4% at $91.68 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 6.7% to $85.27 a barrel.

The downward moves followed a series of public remarks from President Trump on Monday in which he said an end to the Iran conflict was close, although he did not offer a specific timetable. In addition, he flagged the prospect of allowing some waivers on oil sales by sanctioned entities, chiefly Russia, as a way to help counteract potential supply shortfalls tied to tensions in the Middle East.

Last week, Washington was seen allowing India to purchase Russian oil for at least a month, a limited example of the type of easing Trump referenced.

Prices had spiked to as high as $119.50 a barrel on Monday after a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, particularly following U.S. and Israeli strikes on several Iranian energy facilities. Iran responded by attacking oil infrastructure in several Middle Eastern countries and by targeting ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz - a waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world’s crude supply.

Despite the early surge, crude futures pared gains and ended Monday lower amid reports that major global economies were weighing coordinated steps to blunt the impact of any supply shocks. The U.S. and the Group of Seven countries were seen considering releases from emergency petroleum reserves to reduce the risk of inflationary pressure stemming from the Iran conflict.

Even with the pullback, oil prices remain substantially higher year-to-date, roughly 25% above levels earlier in the year, reflecting elevated concern about possible disruptions to supply as hostilities in the Middle East have intensified.


Context and market implications

The swing in prices across consecutive sessions underscores the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments and policy signals. Comments suggesting a nearer end to the Iran conflict and potential policy tools to soften supply shocks were associated with the sharp retracement from intraday highs.

Traders and analysts will likely continue to monitor further statements from policymakers, any confirmed changes to sanctions implementation, and announcements regarding strategic reserve releases as determinants of near-term price direction.

Risks

  • Continued escalation in the Iran conflict could further disrupt crude flows and sustain price volatility - this would primarily affect the energy sector and inflation-sensitive parts of the economy.
  • Decisions by major economies to release emergency petroleum reserves, or changes to sanctions waivers for Russian oil, create policy uncertainty that could alter supply dynamics and market expectations - impacting energy markets and broader inflation measures.
  • Retaliatory attacks on shipping lanes or regional infrastructure pose ongoing operational risks to maritime transport and commodity logistics, affecting shipping, insurance, and energy sectors.

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