Commodities February 3, 2026

Oil Pulls Back After Reports Nuclear Talks Between U.S. and Iran Resume; U.S. Inventories Show Large Draw

Market moves driven by shifting diplomatic signals and an unexpected steep fall in U.S. crude stocks amid cold-related production outages

By Sofia Navarro
Oil Pulls Back After Reports Nuclear Talks Between U.S. and Iran Resume; U.S. Inventories Show Large Draw

Oil futures gave back some earlier gains after conflicting reports about whether nuclear talks between the United States and Iran were proceeding. Markets were also supported by industry data showing a substantial, surprise draw in U.S. crude inventories as extreme cold disrupted production and exports.

Key Points

  • Diplomatic developments between the U.S. and Iran were the primary driver of oil price moves as reports alternated between cancellation and resumption of nuclear talks.
  • Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed an unexpected draw of 11.1 million barrels of U.S. crude in the week to January 30, versus expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel build, supporting prices amid cold-related production and export disruptions.
  • Geopolitical incidents overnight - including a U.S. shoot-down of an Iranian drone near a U.S. carrier and Iranian gunboats approaching a U.S.-flagged tanker - heightened concerns that military escalation could further disrupt Middle East oil supplies.

Oil prices trimmed part of their earlier advances on Wednesday after reports first said nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran had been canceled and later indicated the talks were back on. Developments between the two countries remained the dominant influence on price movements, with market participants also reacting to industry inventory data showing a significant one-week drop in U.S. crude stocks.

At 14:55 ET (19:55 GMT), Brent crude futures for April were up 1.9% at $68.61 a barrel, having climbed to $69.75 at their session high. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.7% to $64.27 a barrel.

Initial coverage reported that the planned meeting - scheduled for Friday - had collapsed after the U.S. refused to alter its proposed location and format. That account was followed by reports that the talks had been reinstated after urgent lobbying by several Arab and Muslim leaders urging the U.S. administration not to walk away from the discussions.

Iran's foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, posted on X that the meeting was set to take place in Muscat on Friday. Earlier statements from Iranian officials had said they wanted the talks confined to two-way negotiations focused solely on nuclear issues, raising doubts over whether the dialogue would proceed.

Geopolitical tensions also intensified overnight. U.S. forces shot down an Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle that was reported to be approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. In a separate incident, a group of Iranian gunboats were reported to have approached a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Such incidents underline the potential for military escalation in the region.

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of further military action against Iran if Tehran does not comply with U.S. demands to rein in its nuclear program, while Iranian authorities have cautioned they would respond bitterly to any U.S. aggression. Market participants noted that any increase in military activity in the Middle East could disrupt supplies of oil from the region - a prospect that has lent support to prices in recent sessions.

Alongside the geopolitical backdrop, oil received a boost from industry-supplied inventory figures. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week to January 30, a substantial unexpected draw compared with market expectations for a build of 0.7 million barrels.

The API figures often presage similar moves in the official government inventory report, which was due later in the day. The unusually large draw reported by the API comes as extreme cold weather throughout the United States disrupted oil production and also hampered exports from the Gulf Coast. These supply interruptions within the U.S. have been a factor supporting oil prices over recent weeks.

Traders and analysts were weighing the twin influences of renewed hopes for diplomacy and the immediate effects of physical supply disruptions. The interplay between potential de-escalation in diplomatic stances and the tangible short-term supply shortfall added to market volatility during the session.

Given the fluid nature of both the diplomatic signals and the U.S. inventory situation, market participants noted the path for prices remains uncertain in the near term. Official government inventory data and any further developments in the region are expected to drive price direction in the coming days.


Contributors: Reporting relied on industry inventory data and multiple overnight accounts of naval and diplomatic activity in the Middle East.

Risks

  • Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East - increased military activity could interrupt regional oil exports and place upward pressure on energy markets; sectors affected include oil producers, shipping, and refining.
  • Uncertainty around official inventory data - while industry figures showed a large draw, confirmation from government reports is pending and may change market expectations; energy and trading sectors are particularly exposed.
  • Volatile diplomatic signals - rapid changes in reports about the status and format of talks between the U.S. and Iran increase short-term market volatility, affecting commodity traders and energy-linked financial instruments.

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