Commodities June 4, 2026 08:30 PM

Oil markets hold steady amid renewed doubts over quick US-Iran mediated peace

Brent and WTI trade narrowly after prior session losses as geopolitical uncertainty and supply-clamp signals linger

By Hana Yamamoto

Oil prices were largely unchanged in early Asian trading after sharp losses a day earlier, as hopes for a rapid US-Iran-brokered resolution to fighting in the region dimmed. Market attention remains on supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC demand projections and a decline in Iranian shipments, while analysts warn of tightening global inventories that could push prices higher later in the year.

Oil markets hold steady amid renewed doubts over quick US-Iran mediated peace

Key Points

  • Brent at $95.24 and WTI at $92.94 in early Asian trading after sharp prior-session losses; both set to record first weekly gain in three weeks.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty: Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire; Iran conditions any deal on a Lebanon ceasefire. Strait of Hormuz traffic remains limited, impacting supply considerations.
  • OPEC retains 2026 demand growth forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day; Iranian exports are at a six-year low largely due to a US naval blockade, while weak Chinese demand is weighing on Iranian crude.

Oil prices changed little in early trading on Friday, following steep declines in the previous session, as diminishing prospects for a near-term peace arrangement linked to US-Iran talks left traders cautious.

By 0003 GMT, Brent crude futures were at $95.24 a barrel, down $0.21 or 0.22% from the prior close, after having settled 2.84% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $92.94 a barrel, off $0.10 or 0.11%, following a 3.1% fall on Thursday.

Despite the recent volatility, both benchmark contracts were poised to record their first weekly gain in three weeks. WTI was up more than 6% for the week, a rebound that accompanied renewed fighting in the Middle East even as US-mediated discussions aimed at reducing hostilities involving Iran continued with no clear near-term resolution.

Market participants remain attentive to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil flows. Observers noted that traffic in the waterway remained limited, reinforcing concerns about supplies. Several analysts also highlighted a draw in global oil inventories that, if sustained, could contribute to a pronounced price increase in the third quarter.

Geopolitical developments weighed on sentiment. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem publicly rejected a US-brokered agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government intended to halt fighting. Separately, Iran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a formal precondition for any peace deal with Washington, adding complexity to negotiations.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed progress was being made between Israel and Lebanon and that Lebanon deserved to have peace. But market commentary suggested that such statements have done little to lift sustained optimism. "Any optimism remains heavily clouded by a tangled web of headlines and counter-headlines," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

On fundamentals, OPEC maintained its forecast for oil demand growth at 1.2 million barrels per day for the year, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said, signalling the group's view that global consumption growth remains intact despite regional conflict and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping data pointed to a significant decline in Iranian oil shipments, with exports falling to their lowest level in six years, mainly attributed to a US naval blockade. Traders also noted that weak demand from China has pressured prices for Iranian barrels in particular.

From a technical standpoint, some market analysts continue to see upside risks for WTI provided the contract remains above trendline support in the low $80s. That view suggests price direction will be influenced by both technical levels and the evolving supply-demand backdrop tied to geopolitical developments and inventory trends.

Risks

  • Prolonged regional fighting and lack of an agreed ceasefire - impacts oil supply, energy markets, and related sectors such as shipping and refining.
  • Continued limitation of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - poses supply disruption risk to global oil markets and could increase volatility for oil-dependent industries.
  • Falling global oil inventories could precipitate a sharp price rise in the third quarter - affects downstream costs for transportation and industrial sectors and may influence inflation dynamics.

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