Commodities March 4, 2026

Oil jumps over 3% as Middle East fighting widens, amplifying supply worries

Brent and WTI rally amid Strait of Hormuz disruption and higher U.S. crude inventories

By Marcus Reed
Oil jumps over 3% as Middle East fighting widens, amplifying supply worries

Oil prices climbed more than 3% in Asian trade as the Middle East conflict extended into a sixth day without signs of cooling, sparking renewed concerns about disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and prompting volatile market reactions despite a large U.S. stock build reported by the API.

Key Points

  • Brent futures rose about 3% to $83.84 per barrel and WTI climbed about 3.5% to $77.29 per barrel as of 22:24 ET (03:24 GMT).
  • The conflict, now in its sixth day, has expanded beyond the Persian Gulf and disrupted tanker traffic after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, impacting crude exports and prompting at least one producer to declare force majeure.
  • U.S. crude stocks reported by the API increased by roughly 5.6 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 28, well above expectations of a 2.2 million-barrel build, with official EIA data pending.

Oil futures moved notably higher in Asian trading on Thursday as the conflict in the Middle East prolonged into a sixth consecutive day with no sign of de-escalation, sharpening market anxiety about potential interruptions to crude supplies from a region that supplies a substantial share of global exports.

At 22:24 ET (03:24 GMT), Brent futures for May delivery were trading up about 3% at $83.84 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose roughly 3.5% to $77.29 per barrel. Both contracts had finished largely flat on Wednesday after a turbulent session.

Market attention has centered on multiple developments tied to the conflict. The confrontation began last Friday when the U.S. and Israel executed coordinated strikes on Iran, triggering a sequence of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that spread across the region. Those exchanges raised immediate concerns about the security of energy infrastructure in key producing areas.

Tensions escalated further this week when the U.S. sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka in international waters, a move that highlighted how the fighting had widened beyond the confines of the Persian Gulf. Reports also circulated that Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence had contacted Washington to seek negotiations to end the hostilities; Tehran rejected that account, calling it "pure falsehood" and accusing Western media of spreading misinformation. That denial cooled hopes of a quick diplomatic resolution.

Supply-side fears intensified after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz - a strategic chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil shipments transit - disrupting tanker movements and raising the prospect that sustained fighting could sharply curtail Gulf crude exports. The interruption has already had knock-on effects for some producers: reporting showed Iraq declared force majeure on certain crude shipments as flows through the Strait faced severe disruption.

At the same time, U.S. data provided a counterweight to the bullish supply narrative. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by about 5.6 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 28, well above estimates for a build of 2.2 million barrels and down from a prior increase of 11.4 million barrels. Traders were awaiting official confirmation from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which was due to publish its own inventory figures later on Thursday.

The combination of an escalating geopolitical conflict that has disrupted shipping lanes and a larger-than-expected U.S. stock build created a complex backdrop for prices, producing both upward pressure from supply fears and downward elements tied to domestic inventory growth. Market participants continued to monitor developments closely for signs of either further escalation or progress toward de-escalation.


Market implications

  • Heightened risk of supply curtailments from Gulf producers.
  • Disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already led to force majeure declarations on some exports.
  • U.S. crude inventory build reported by the API adds a bearish element while traders await EIA confirmation.

Risks

  • Sustained closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could materially reduce crude exports from Gulf producers, affecting global oil supply and shipping operations - sectors impacted include energy production, maritime transport, and refining.
  • Escalation of military actions beyond the Gulf, evidenced by the sinking of an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, raises uncertainty about regional stability and could broaden the set of energy and shipping routes at risk - impacting energy markets and logistics networks.
  • Conflicting reports about diplomatic outreach, including Tehran's denial that its intelligence ministry sought talks (calling the report "pure falsehood"), increase uncertainty about the timeline for any ceasefire or de-escalation, complicating market expectations for supply normalization.

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