Commodities February 19, 2026

Oil climbs as U.S.-Iran tensions and inventory dynamics lift markets

Brent and WTI tick higher amid a U.S. deadline to Tehran, naval activity near the Strait of Hormuz and falling inventories

By Ajmal Hussain
Oil climbs as U.S.-Iran tensions and inventory dynamics lift markets

Oil prices rose on Friday as rising concern over a potential U.S.-Iran confrontation and signs of tighter supply supported markets. Brent and U.S. crude posted gains after Washington set a short deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement, while reports of lower U.S. crude stocks and constrained Saudi exports added to bullish pressure. Japan's slowing core inflation also featured, with potential implications for global demand and interest-rate policy.

Key Points

  • Geopolitical risk: A U.S. deadline to Iran and planned Iranian-Russian naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz elevated concerns about supply disruptions; shipping and energy sectors are directly affected.
  • Supply signals: U.S. crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels and Saudi Arabian exports were reported at 6.988 million bpd in December, indicating tighter availability - relevant for refining and trading markets.
  • Policy backdrop: Japan's slower core inflation at 2.0% in January could delay domestic rate hikes; low rates in oil-importing countries tend to support crude demand and prices.

Oil benchmarks moved higher on Friday as market participants reacted to heightened tensions between the United States and Iran and to data suggesting tighter crude availability.

Market moves - Brent crude futures rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.87, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $66.66.

Prices had already settled at their strongest level in six months on Thursday after U.S. President Trump warned that "really bad things" could happen if Iran did not reach an agreement concerning a nuclear program that Iran describes as peaceful but which the U.S. views as militaristic. The administration gave Tehran a time window of 10 to 15 days to come to terms.


Geopolitical developments - Iran has announced plans for a joint naval exercise with Russia, according to a local news agency, following a recent temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz for military drills. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial chokepoint opposite the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits. Market observers say conflict or disruptions in that corridor could restrict supplies flowing into global markets and thereby exert upward pressure on prices.


Supply-side indicators - Further support for crude prices came from reported declines in inventories and constraints on exports among major producers. An Energy Information Administration report released on Thursday showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels, a drop accompanied by higher refining utilisation and increased exports.

Data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative showed Saudi Arabia's oil exports in December were 6.988 million barrels per day, the lowest level since September, signaling a reduction in outbound flows from the world's largest oil exporter during that month.


Demand-side and policy context - Japan's annual core consumer inflation rate was 2.0% in January, marking the slowest pace in two years. The softer inflation reading could weigh on any plans by the Bank of Japan to lift its policy interest rate. The article notes that low interest rates in oil-importing countries such as Japan are typically seen as supportive for crude prices, because they can underpin demand dynamics in those economies.


The balance of geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz, movements in crude inventories and export flows from major producers, and the monetary policy backdrop in key importing nations collectively influenced Friday's modest gains in oil benchmarks.

Risks

  • Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz region could limit exports and shipments, impacting global oil supply and energy markets.
  • Shifts in crude stockpiles and export volumes among major producing nations could create volatile price movements for oil-related sectors, including refining and shipping.
  • Slowing inflation in large oil-importing economies may influence central bank decisions, which in turn can affect demand trajectories and price dynamics for crude.

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