Commodities February 26, 2026

Nvidia’s Beat Falls Short of a Big Market Reaction

Strong quarterly results fail to ignite a broader rally as competitive and customer-concentration concerns persist

By Derek Hwang
Nvidia’s Beat Falls Short of a Big Market Reaction

Nvidia again topped analysts’ quarterly revenue estimates and provided a stronger-than-expected outlook for the next quarter, but the stock’s after-hours uptick quickly faded and broader market excitement was muted. Asian markets, led by South Korea’s Kospi, surged on the wider chip and hardware rally, while other parts of the tech sector showed mixed results. Currency moves in Japan and China, ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva and reports that OPEC+ may consider boosting output kept energy markets relatively calm.

Key Points

  • Nvidia topped analysts’ revenue estimates and issued a stronger next-quarter forecast, but the initial roughly 3% after-hours gain to the share price was largely reversed - impacts technology and semiconductor sectors.
  • Asian markets, driven by chipmakers and computing hardware vendors, rallied strongly; South Korea’s Kospi rose nearly 4% on Thursday and is up about 50% year-to-date - impacts equities and hardware suppliers.
  • Geopolitical and policy developments influenced currency and energy markets: Japan’s BOJ nominations affected the yen, the yuan strengthened to multimonth highs, and U.S.-Iran talks plus reports of possible OPEC+ production increases kept crude relatively calm - impacts FX, energy, and geopolitics-sensitive markets.

Nvidia reported quarterly revenue above analysts’ expectations and offered a higher forecast for the coming quarter, yet the market reaction was restrained. The chip maker’s shares rose roughly 3% in after-hours trading but most of that gain was later relinquished, leaving investors with lingering questions about rising competition and the narrow set of customers that drive much of Nvidia’s revenue.

The subdued response suggests that much of Nvidia’s AI-driven growth may already be reflected in its valuation, even as corporate spending on AI infrastructure appears to be accelerating. That broader spending trend showed up in Asian markets, where chipmakers and computing hardware vendors dominate equity indices. South Korea’s Kospi added nearly 4% on Thursday and has rallied about 50% so far this year, having roughly doubled over the past six months.

The tech sector’s performance was uneven elsewhere. While software stocks broadly continued to regain ground, some high-profile names weakened after their results. Salesforce retreated about 4% overnight following its report, and cloud HR software provider Workday slid roughly 8%, touching five-year lows. Despite these mixed signals, the S&P 500 managed a notable 0.8% gain on Wednesday and futures retained those gains into Thursday’s session. European equities were firmer amid a busy earnings calendar.

Attention in Japan centered on the Bank of Japan as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi nominated two board candidates seen as dovish. The nominations initially weighed on the yen, as some market participants drew parallels with concerns over central bank independence elsewhere. However, many investors noted that the appointees would replace two similarly dovish officials, and the initial impact on the currency faded as the yen found firmer footing later.

China’s currency has continued to strengthen. The yuan reached its best level versus the dollar in nearly three years and climbed to a nine-month high against the euro on Thursday, underlining divergent currency dynamics in the region.

Energy markets kept a wary eye on diplomatic developments in Geneva, where U.S.-Iran nuclear talks resumed on Thursday. Betting markets still implied more than a 50% probability of a limited U.S. military strike within the next month, a geopolitical risk that could influence oil prices. Despite that, crude remained comparatively calm, a development supported by media reports that OPEC+ is considering increasing production at its next meeting.


Chart of the day

South Korea’s rally on Thursday was led by major chip manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix after Nvidia’s upbeat quarterly report. The surge in the Korean market has also been attributed to recent governance reforms championed by President Lee Jae Myung. On Wednesday, parliament passed a third revision to the Commercial Act intended to strengthen protections for shareholders, a move investors have cited as supporting the rally.


Events to watch

  • U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m. EST)
  • U.S. 7-year note auction
  • Resumption of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva

The muted market response to Nvidia’s results underscores two concurrent dynamics: the market’s strong appetite for AI themes appears to have lifted valuations already, and the performance of individual tech names can diverge sharply even as index-level gains persist. Equity moves across the U.S., Europe and Asia reflected those tensions on a busy day for corporate earnings and policy-focused headlines.

At the same time, currency and energy markets reacted to distinct drivers. The yen’s intraday swings reflected governance and policy nomination news in Tokyo, while the yuan’s advance against major currencies highlighted its own independent path. In energy, geopolitical uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations and signals from OPEC+ influenced market sentiment, but did not produce a large price spike in crude.

Investors and market watchers will likely monitor the same set of cross-currents in coming sessions: corporate earnings that can reinforce or challenge lofty AI-related expectations; central bank and government appointments that can shift currency and rate dynamics; and diplomatic developments that feed directly into energy market risk premia.

Risks

  • Competition and a concentrated customer base at Nvidia may limit upside in the stock despite strong results - risk to semiconductor and AI infrastructure firms.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations and a betting market indicating a greater than 50% chance of a limited U.S. strike in the next month could add volatility to oil and energy markets - risk to energy sector and broader market sentiment.
  • Policy and appointment developments in Japan, including the nomination of dovish Bank of Japan board members, create potential for yen volatility and local market sensitivity - risk to Japanese equities and currency markets.

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