Middle East benchmark crude oil premiums jumped to record levels on Thursday, with both Dubai and Oman trading at roughly $65 per barrel above their reference prices amid supply concerns linked to regional strikes, according to trade sources and market data.
Cash Dubai was assessed at a record $166.80 per barrel for May-loading cargoes on Thursday, compared with $114.17 for the ICE Brent contract. That assessment reflects a sharp escalation in spot premiums after Iran carried out strikes on regional energy facilities.
Market participants pointed to Tehran's retaliatory action against Israeli attacks on Iranian gas facilities as a key driver behind the surge. The nearly three-week confrontation has pushed spot premiums sharply higher as traders price in immediate supply risk.
Dubai's premium to swaps surged to $65.42 a barrel on Thursday, a dramatic rise from an average premium of 90 cents in February. Oman crude futures also reached record highs, climbing to near $167 per barrel, with its premium to Dubai swaps at $65.58 a barrel - up from an average of just 75 cents in February.
Data from LSEG showed the spread between Brent and Dubai swaps widened to $12.79 per barrel. These moves mark a significant departure from the narrow differentials seen earlier in the year and underscore the market's sensitivity to disruptions in the Middle East.
Market context
- Cash Dubai assessed at $166.80 per barrel for May-loading cargoes on Thursday.
- ICE Brent contract priced at $114.17 per barrel in the same comparison.
- Dubai premium to swaps at $65.42 per barrel versus a February average of 90 cents.
- Oman futures near $167 per barrel with a $65.58 per barrel premium to Dubai swaps, compared with a February average of 75 cents.
- Brent-Dubai swaps spread widened to $12.79 per barrel, per LSEG data.
The data indicate an abrupt re-pricing of spot Middle East crude, driven by direct strikes on energy facilities and the subsequent escalation between Iran and Israel. The resulting premium levels are unprecedented in recent trading and reflect heightened short-term supply concerns.