DUBAI, June 29 - Mediators involved in implementing the interim 14-point memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States have set up communications channels intended to de-escalate incidents, and technical teams are expected to meet in Doha in the coming days to continue work on implementing the accord, a source with knowledge of the discussions said on Monday.
The meetings would follow a weekend of reciprocal strikes that threatened to undermine the fragile arrangement. The memorandum of understanding, signed on June 17, commits both sides to a cessation of hostilities and to reopening the Strait of Hormuz - a key shipping lane through which around one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically moves.
Despite the reported plans for technical talks, a senior Iranian official was reported as saying technical meetings had not been confirmed. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi was quoted by Iran’s Tasnim news agency as saying on Monday that technical working group meetings were not scheduled for this week and that talks in Qatar were not confirmed, while consultations with Qatar on following up implementation commitments were continuing as usual.
A U.S. official told Reuters on Sunday that "Technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MoU. Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely," signalling a suspension of overt hostilities while the technical work proceeds.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was central to the original agreement. Closure of the waterway earlier this year sent oil prices above $100 a barrel, a move that contributed to a renewed spike in global inflation and created a political challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump by pushing up prices at the pump months before midterm elections.
In Tehran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that $6 billion out of $12 billion of assets frozen in Qatar would be released and returned to Iran following the accord, Iranian state media reported. He added that the recent agreement had lifted sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical sectors, describing it as "a great victory for the Iranian people." These comments reflect Tehran’s reading of elements of the deal as easing restrictions on its energy industries.
Oil markets reacted to the prospect of renewed diplomacy. Brent crude steadied at around $72 a barrel on Monday amid reports of a return to talks. Analysts at ING, however, cautioned that the market’s apparent complacency was surprising given the sizable risks still confronting oil supplies and trade in the region.
The move back toward negotiations comes after a string of strikes and counterstrikes that began when an Iranian projectile struck a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Both Washington and Tehran accused the other of breaching the interim ceasefire, setting off retaliatory actions throughout the region.
Early on Sunday, Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, actions Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said targeted U.S. installations in response to U.S. strikes it said had violated the ceasefire. The Guards warned that American bases in the region would "experience hell in the coming days." Bahraini authorities reported that sirens sounded and later said an Iranian attack damaged a residential building, prompting Bahrain to urge the U.N. Security Council to convene an urgent session to hold Iran accountable.
About an hour after the Iranian operations, Kuwait’s army said its air defences were responding to missile and drone attacks. It later reported intercepting two ballistic missiles with no damage or casualties.
The weekend’s escalation also prompted a sharp social media post from President Trump. He warned on social media: "There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started," adding, "If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!"
Meanwhile, diplomatic attention extended beyond the Gulf. Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close ally of Iran-backed Hezbollah, criticized a separate U.S.-brokered agreement between Lebanon and Israel intended to halt a parallel war. Berri warned that the deal could lead to efforts to divide Lebanon and said it would not be implemented. The renewed conflict in Lebanon began after Hezbollah struck Israel early in the war, an action the group said was in support of Iran; Israel’s subsequent responses have caused mass displacement and more than 4,000 deaths in Lebanon.
Israel said on Sunday it had struck Hezbollah positions, destroying underground infrastructure, following another strike on Saturday that happened soon after a recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Tehran has stated that ending the conflict in Lebanon and withdrawing Israeli forces from southern Lebanon are integral components of any broader arrangement with the United States to halt the wider war that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.
As mediators press to maintain channels of communication and technical teams prepare to resume discussions in Doha, many uncertainties remain. The implementation phase will hinge on follow-through by both sides and on the ability of mediators to manage and defuse incidents that could otherwise derail diplomatic progress.
Summary
Mediators have set up de-escalation channels and reported that Iranian and U.S. technical teams are expected to meet in Doha soon to work on implementing a 14-point interim memorandum of understanding signed on June 17. The accord calls for a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reciprocal strikes have tested the deal’s durability. Oil has steadied near $72 a barrel amid the diplomatic movement, though analysts warn risks remain.
Key points
- Technical teams from Iran and the United States are expected to meet in Doha in the coming days to work on implementing the June 17 14-point MoU.
- The MoU calls for a cessation of hostilities and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for roughly one fifth of global oil and LNG flows; closure earlier in the year had pushed oil above $100 a barrel and contributed to higher inflation.
- Recent exchanges of strikes - including Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. sites in Kuwait and Bahrain and subsequent alerts - have raised the risk of the interim agreement unravelling and affected regional stability, with implications for energy and shipping sectors as well as defence and political risk assessments.
Risks and uncertainties
- Ongoing military strikes and accusations of ceasefire violations risk derailing implementation of the MoU and could again disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
- Conflicting official statements about whether technical meetings are scheduled complicate clarity on the next steps and create uncertainty around the pace and scope of implementation, which could affect markets sensitive to geopolitical risk.
- Parallel escalations in Lebanon and continued strikes between Israel and Hezbollah add regional complexity that could influence the durability of any U.S.-Iran agreement and broader security dynamics.