Markets entered the week on edge as a lengthy, alarmist essay on the future of artificial intelligence rekindled investor concerns about how fast the technology could reshape labor markets and aggregate demand. A 7,000-word piece titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," published by research firm Citrini, sketched a bleak scenario in which the disappearance of millions of office jobs drags the economy into a deflationary spiral.
Such a scenario is not impossible in the abstract - few outcomes are - but the visceral market reaction to a long-form blogpost prompted renewed questions about whether a form of an "AI doom bubble" has taken hold, where fear of extreme disruption becomes a market driver in its own right. When apocalyptic narratives start dictating asset allocation decisions, price action can reflect mood more than fundamentals.
There were offsetting developments on the corporate and product fronts that week. A fresh round of plug-ins released by Anthropic illustrated one path for AI firms: partnering with established companies rather than purely displacing them. That kind of cooperative scenario offers a less disruptive template for adoption, and it provided a modest lift to software names early in the week.
Still, risk aversion prevailed across equity markets. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declined on Thursday, even after a highly watched earnings and guidance beat from Nvidia. The $4.5 trillion chipmaker reported better-than-expected results for the January quarter - its 14th consecutive revenue beat - and projected current-quarter revenue above market estimates. Nvidia shares initially rallied on the news, then retraced. Market participants appeared to price much of the good news in advance, and lingering concerns such as rising competition and customer concentration continued to weigh on sentiment.
Elsewhere in equities, South Korea stood out. The KOSPI benchmark, while dipping marginally on Friday, has surged more than 48% year-to-date. That extraordinary year-to-date return can suggest speculative fervor, but it is not automatic proof of excess; there are arguments that the market's advance may have further runway. The dynamic deserves scrutiny because outsized moves in a single market can ripple through investor positioning and regional flows.
On the M&A front, a prolonged contest to acquire Warner Bros Discovery appears to have concluded in favor of Paramount Skydance, whose revised $31-a-share proposal won out over Netflix. The outcome closes a widely watched takeover chapter and will shift focus to deal execution and the broader implications for media consolidation.
Geopolitics and energy headlines added another layer of nervousness. The United States and Iran continued an uneasy standoff over Tehran's nuclear program, holding indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday. Early reports that negotiations had progressed pushed crude prices lower, although Brent crude climbed back above $71 a barrel early on Friday. Discussions are set to resume in Vienna next week, extending the market's waiting game.
Volatile geopolitical coverage may be indirectly helping OPEC+. The producer group has leaned on headlines to fortify its "balanced market" narrative even though some on-the-ground indicators tell a more nuanced story. Ahead of a scheduled meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in output of 137,000 barrels per day. That modest rise will be watched through the lens of both headline sensitivity and actual supply-demand dynamics.
Energy considerations also surfaced in the U.S. political arena. President Donald Trump delivered a record-length State of the Union address on Tuesday that ran one hour and 47 minutes. The speech did not offer sweeping new policy fixes for Americans grappling with affordability issues, but it did include a plan aimed at boosting retirement savings and reiterated a commitment to pushing ahead with a tariff agenda - even after the Supreme Court, the prior week, quashed a large portion of that agenda.
One striking line from the address touched directly on the infrastructure challenges associated with AI. The president said hyperscalers "have the obligation to provide for their own power needs" as they build energy-intensive data centers to support AI workloads. The administration's aim is to avoid further strain on the grid and prevent upward pressure on consumer electricity bills. Yet the administration's concern highlights an unmistakable fact: pressure on power systems is already rising, and whether or not companies ultimately self-supply, expansive AI buildouts will face severe power-infrastructure bottlenecks.
That reality is arguably more consequential than speculative narratives about mass job loss. It underscores a simple product-first observation about technology adoption: physical constraints - power, cooling, transmission - can be as decisive in shaping the pace and geography of adoption as software capability or capital availability. In short, investors and policymakers perhaps ought to devote as much attention to concrete infrastructure limits as to viral doomsday scenarios.
Reuters Open Interest highlights and team reads
- Energy and resources coverage in Reuters' Open Interest asks what is one of the largest but least-discussed dynamics in today's global oil market - an item that bears directly on market structure and pricing.
- The package examines where China's dominance of critical mineral supply chains may not be as absolute as commonly portrayed.
- It also explores why new European policy proposals on industrial heat could be decisive for the future competitiveness of the continent's manufacturing base.
- And it flags a likely sticking point for China as it seeks to reroute more trade to Europe - an issue that will shape trade flows and industrial sourcing decisions.
What the ROI team is reading, listening to and watching
Recommended reading among the ROI editors included a forensic rebuttal to the wide-circulation Citrini post: Citadel Securities' "2026 Global Intelligence Crisis," which directly challenges the assumptions and conclusions of the 7,000-word doomsday thesis. The fact that one of the world's largest market makers authored a detailed counterpoint to a Substack-length post from a small research shop is noteworthy in itself, and it reflects how quickly academic or blog-style narratives can compel responses from market institutions.
On metals, attention focused on a Reuters exclusive that detailed a Pentagon-created AI program to set prices for critical minerals. The initiative is beginning with a cluster of niche metals - germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten - markets where China exerts significant influence on pricing. The program aims to expand into additional critical materials over time, a development that could alter how metal markets operate.
Commentary from energy and transition specialists underlined divergent infrastructure strategies. One column explored arguments that the U.S. is entrenching legacy energy systems while regions such as Europe and China build more efficient new infrastructure, raising questions about how capital markets will react to the differing paths. Another insight examined the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and its potential implications for green steel, which has struggled to gain traction because buyers are reluctant to pay a premium and governments have been slow to regulate its use.
On audio, the team recommended an episode of the Energy Unplugged podcast from Aurora Energy Research, featuring a conversation with Nat Bullard, co-founder of Halcyon, about how the energy transition is unfolding unevenly across regions. And on video, a discussion with Carmel Crimmins focused on how middle powers are de-risking from the U.S., recalibrating ties with China, and seeking alternative trade arrangements in a multipolar world.
Takeaways for markets and sectors
The week demonstrated the multi-dimensional forces now reshaping investor behavior: viral narratives about AI-driven labor disruption, real-time corporate earnings and product moves in semiconductors and software, and the tangible constraints imposed by energy infrastructure and geopolitics. Each of these vectors matters for different sectors. Technology and software firms are sensitive to narrative swings and product partnerships; chipmakers and data-center operators face scrutiny over concentration and margin sustainability; energy producers and utilities contend with both geopolitics and grid constraints; and metals markets watch policy and pricing innovations closely.
For traders and portfolio managers, the message is straightforward: distinguish between headline-driven sentiment and structural, measurable constraints. The latter - limiting power grids, concentrated vendor relationships, and supply-chain bottlenecks - will likely determine the realistic trajectory of AI deployment and its economic effects.
As the week closed, the ROI team encouraged readers to stay broadly informed across these vectors. For those interested in daily context, the Morning Bid remains available by subscription, and the ROI feed and social channels provide ongoing coverage and analysis.
Corrections and clarifications: none noted.