Macquarie has updated its outlook for gold and silver in 2026, increasing near-term price projections as it responds to a period of marked market turbulence.
In a briefing, strategist Peter Taylor flagged both the upside moves in gold and the potential for abrupt declines in silver. "On gold, we highlighted the risk of a $5,000/oz level if there were continued Fed chair concerns, and so it came to pass. We also cautioned of the risk of a 'sharp retracement' for silver given its habit of gapping lower," Taylor said.
The bank raised its average gold forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $4,590 per ounce, up from a prior forecast of $4,300. Its second-quarter gold estimate was also nudged higher to $4,300 from $4,200. For the full year 2026 Macquarie now expects an average gold price of $4,323 per ounce, up from $4,225 previously.
Silver targets were revised upward as well. Macquarie moved its Q1 2026 silver forecast to $75, up from $55, and increased the 2026 average for silver to $62 from $57.
Taylor described January as an especially volatile month, listing a series of high-profile developments that contributed to market turbulence. "January started off with the DoJ threatening a criminal indictment of the Fed chair; the arrest and extradition of Maduro; a focus on Greenland with the threat of supplemental tariffs on some NATO countries; and the build up of military forces around Iran," he said. He added that broader commodities also posted strong returns even where fundamentals were often not aligned with price movements.
"All in all, this led to one of the best monthly price performances of the commodities complex in recent history," Taylor said, underscoring how price action outpaced fundamental signals across the sector.
Despite lifting its near-term targets, Macquarie indicated it will hold off on rewriting its longer-term assumptions for the precious metals. The bank cited an ongoing disconnect between market fundamentals and the extreme volatility evident in the gold and silver markets as the reason for pausing any further adjustments to multi-year outlooks.
Context for investors
Investors tracking commodities and precious metals should note that the revisions reflect short-term responses to heightened market volatility rather than a settled shift in long-term expectations. Macquarie's decision to postpone further long-term updates signals continued uncertainty about how fundamental drivers will reconcile with episodic price surges and drops.
The bank's updated forecasts and cautionary stance are directly relevant to participants in commodity markets, asset managers with exposure to metals, and market strategists monitoring the interplay between geopolitical events and price dynamics.