Commodities March 16, 2026

Kallas Proposes Black Sea-Style Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

EU discusses U.N.-led initiative and naval options as Iran’s attacks choke global oil and fertilizer flows

By Caleb Monroe
Kallas Proposes Black Sea-Style Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has raised the prospect of applying the framework of the Black Sea grain initiative to restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. She said she discussed the idea with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as Iran’s strikes across the narrow channel have disrupted a significant share of global oil shipments and threatened fertilizer production.

Key Points

  • Kaja Kallas discussed with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres the possibility of applying a Black Sea-style arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas shipping.
  • The Black Sea initiative allows Ukraine to export grain, related foodstuffs and fertilizers while merchant and civilian vessels are not attacked; the idea is to replicate that protection for ships in the Hormuz.
  • Iran’s attacks in the channel between Iran and Oman have effectively shut the strait, disrupting about a fifth of global oil supply and threatening fertilizer production, which could affect food availability.

BRUSSELS, March 16 - EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday she had discussed with the United Nations the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments by adopting arrangements similar to the Black Sea grain initiative.

Under the Black Sea arrangement, Ukraine is able to export grain, related foodstuffs and fertilizers through the Black Sea while merchant and other civilian vessels are spared attacks by Russian forces. Kallas told officials she had spoken with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres about whether a comparable initiative could be used to unblock the Hormuz route, currently constrained amid the Iran war.

A U.N. spokesperson acknowledged there has been speculation about a potential U.N.-led initiative focused on the strait, but warned that the "stakes are too high," and said the United Nations will continue to work "discreetly." The spokesperson also noted that Guterres was scheduled to travel to Brussels on Tuesday for informal discussions with European officials.

Kallas described the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as "really dangerous" for energy supplies to Asia, and said it was also creating problems for fertilizer production that could translate into food shortages.

Iran has effectively shut the strait amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week, according to officials quoted by Kallas. Iranian forces have attacked ships in the narrow channel between Iran and Oman, a disruption that has choked off a fifth of global oil supply and been described as the biggest disruption of its kind.

Within the EU, ministers will also examine whether the mandate of the bloc's small Middle East naval mission, Aspides, could be altered. Aspides currently focuses on protecting vessels in the Red Sea from attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebel group. Kallas said the question of expanding Aspides' role to the Strait of Hormuz would require the backing of member states.

Responding to scepticism from German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul about whether Aspides could be effective in the Hormuz context, Kallas reiterated that any change would depend on securing support from the EU's member states.


The discussions underway reflect efforts by EU leaders and the U.N. to explore measures that would safeguard commercial shipping in a strategically vital waterway while acknowledging the complexities and high risks involved in any international initiative.

Risks

  • High strategic and operational stakes for any U.N.-led initiative - the U.N. has cautioned that risks are considerable, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts (impacts: energy, international diplomacy).
  • Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens energy shipments to Asia and disrupts fertilizer production, creating downside risk for energy and agricultural sectors (impacts: energy, agriculture, fertilizers).
  • Efforts to repurpose the EU naval mission Aspides face political constraints - member state support is required and scepticism from some officials could limit operational options (impacts: defense, maritime security, shipping).

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