Commodities March 16, 2026

Israel Says Displaced Lebanese Will Not Return Until Border Communities Are Secure

Ground operations expand in southern Lebanon as mass displacement and civilian casualties mount

By Nina Shah
Israel Says Displaced Lebanese Will Not Return Until Border Communities Are Secure

Israel warned that Lebanese civilians forced from their homes by its military campaign will not be permitted to return until the safety of Israelis living near the border is secured. The Israeli military said troops are conducting ground operations in new locations in southern Lebanon, describing the activity as "limited and targeted." The campaign follows a rocket salvo on March 2 that expanded the conflict and has driven more than 1 million people from their homes in Lebanon.

Key Points

  • Israel says displaced residents south of the Litani line will not be allowed to return until northern Israeli communities are secure - impacts defence and humanitarian response planning.
  • Ground operations expanded into new locations in southern Lebanon, described by the Israeli military as "limited and targeted."
  • Lebanese authorities report over 1 million people displaced and more than 880 killed; the UN launched a $308 million appeal to assist Lebanon.

Israel has signalled that displaced residents of southern Lebanon will be prevented from returning to their homes until officials are satisfied that Israeli communities near the border are safe, as its forces pressed into additional areas of southern Lebanon.

In a briefing, Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters that soldiers were conducting ground operations in "new locations", and characterised the recent push as "limited and targeted". The current phase of operations began after Defence Minister Israel Katz announced an order to expand the military campaign days earlier.

According to statements issued by Israeli officials, the move to broaden operations came after Hezbollah launched a salvo of rockets on March 2, an attack that drew Lebanon further into the regional conflict. Israeli forces have occupied five positions in southern Lebanon since a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect in November 2024, and additional units were dispatched following the March 2 strikes.

Hezbollah, a Shi'ite Muslim group, described its March 2 attack as retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader on February 28, which coincided with the start of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Israel has replied with an intensive bombing campaign on Lebanese territory, accompanied more recently by ground operations.

Israel's military chief Eyal Zamir, visiting troops near the border, said strikes aimed at Iran were affecting Hezbollah's ability to arm and fund itself and reported more than 400 Hezbollah fighters killed since March 2. "Over the past two weeks, we launched a limited, targeted ground operation in southern Lebanon with the objective of pushing the threat away from the border and ensuring long-term security for the residents of northern Israel," Zamir said. Hezbollah does not commonly publish figures for its casualties.

Casualty figures provided by Lebanon's health ministry indicate that more than 880 people in Lebanon have been killed by Israeli attacks; those figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians. Lebanese authorities report that more than 1 million people have been displaced, many from southern areas and zones near the capital Beirut, with over 130,000 living in collective shelters.

Last week the United Nations launched a $308 million appeal to assist Lebanon in managing the humanitarian fallout from the conflict.


Return of displaced residents linked to border security

Defence Minister Israel Katz explicitly connected the possibility of displaced Lebanese returning to the safety situation on the Israeli side of the border. In a statement he said: "Hundreds of thousands of Shi'ite residents of southern Lebanon who have evacuated or are evacuating their homes in southern Lebanon and Beirut will not return to areas south of the Litani line until the safety of northern residents is ensured."

Katz said the military had been directed to destroy what he called "terrorist infrastructure" in villages near the border, and drew a comparison between these operations and those carried out in parts of the Gaza Strip that were extensively damaged by Israeli forces. He also suggested that Naim Qassem, deputy leader of Hezbollah, might be at similar personal risk to others who have been killed in Israeli strikes; Qassem dismissed threats to his life as "worthless."


Troop movements and frontline developments

Over the weekend Israeli forces surrounded the southern Lebanese town of Khiyam and advanced west toward the Litani River, a manoeuvre that Lebanese security sources said could put large portions of southern Lebanon under Israeli control. Israeli troops engaged Hezbollah fighters across southern Lebanon on Monday and advanced towards Bint Jbeil, a village roughly 4 km from the Israeli border described by Lebanese sources as a Hezbollah stronghold.

Two Israeli officials indicated on Sunday that Israel and Lebanon were expected to hold talks within days aimed at securing a lasting ceasefire that would include the disarmament of Hezbollah. A Lebanese source familiar with the matter said talks did not appear imminent, though the Lebanese side expected discussions to occur eventually. Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told reporters that "a few players were trying to mediate and host talks," and said that talks were likely the next step after Israel had degraded Hezbollah's capabilities.

Under the November 2024 ceasefire arrangement, Hezbollah was to withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese military would assume responsibility for the area. Israel has said Lebanon did not uphold its part of that deal and accused Hezbollah of continuing to operate positions and maintain weapons near the border.


Humanitarian toll and international response

The intensification of military activity has had a substantial humanitarian impact, with Lebanese authorities reporting more than 1 million people displaced and more than 130,000 sheltering collectively. The Lebanese health ministry's toll of over 880 deaths does not separate combatants from civilians, leaving the precise civilian casualty count unclear in the figures released.

The United Nations' $308 million appeal is intended to provide immediate assistance as the country copes with the effects of the conflict.


What remains uncertain

Officials from both sides have signalled differing timelines and conditions for ending military operations or allowing displaced residents to return home. Talks aimed at a ceasefire and Hezbollah disarmament were described as possible in the near term by some Israeli officials, while a Lebanese source suggested negotiations were not imminent even if they were expected eventually.

In the interim, Israeli authorities have tied the return of displaced Lebanese civilians south of the Litani line directly to the security situation of northern Israeli communities near the border.

Risks

  • Continued escalation of hostilities could prolong large-scale displacement and increase humanitarian needs - affecting aid delivery and shelter sectors.
  • Further military advances or strikes risk additional infrastructure damage and civilian casualties - complicating reconstruction and recovery planning.
  • Breakdown or delay in ceasefire talks could extend conflict duration, sustaining regional instability and pressure on security and aid resources.

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