Indian refiners have broadened their crude purchasing footprint to include heavier flows from Latin American and African producers after shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted by the Israeli-U.S. war on Iran, preliminary trade data show.
Until the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February, most of India’s crude came from nearby Middle Eastern producers. Since then, refiners in the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer have raised imports from Venezuela, Brazil, Angola and Nigeria to help replace volumes that were constrained by restricted shipping, according to data provided by trade sources and compiled by Kpler.
Those adjustments were accompanied by a continuation of Russian oil purchases. India temporarily paused purchases from Iraq in April when Iraqi exports were halted, while it resumed imports of Iranian oil after a seven-year hiatus following a short-term waiver from Washington intended to help steady global oil markets.
The data indicate a marked change in Russia-related flows in April. New Delhi’s imports from Russia fell by about 29.4% from March to 1.6 million barrels per day, a decline driven in part by Nayara Energy taking its 400,000-bpd refinery offline for maintenance. Preliminary Kpler figures show India is scheduled to receive roughly 1.9 million bpd of Russian oil and about 41,000 bpd of Iraqi oil in May.
Overall crude imports into India were reported at 4.57 million barrels per day in April, unchanged from March but down 15.5% compared with the same month a year earlier. Within the Middle Eastern cohort, imports from the United Arab Emirates rose back to 669,700 bpd in April from 230,600 bpd in March, while Saudi Arabian volumes held steady at about 619,500 bpd.
Geography and infrastructure are important determinants of these flows. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the only Gulf producers with pipeline routes that allow them to export crude without traversing the Strait of Hormuz. By contrast, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain remain dependent on shipping through the strait for their shipments. That logistical distinction has helped shape India’s supplier choices since the onset of restricted shipping.
The share of imports from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - including the UAE while it remained a member in April - rose to 45.2% that month from roughly 30% in March. The UAE subsequently left OPEC in May, which frees it from the group’s production quotas.
The uptick in UAE shipments helped mitigate a broader drop in the Middle East’s contribution to India’s imports. At the same time, the share of Russian crude in India’s import mix declined to about 35% in April from nearly 50% the prior month. Russia remained India’s largest supplier overall, followed by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with Brazil ranked fourth and Venezuela fifth. Kpler’s preliminary data suggest Venezuela was positioned to become the fourth-largest supplier in May.
Analytical note: The shifts documented here reflect short-term reweighting of supply lines by refiners responding to shipping constraints and refinery maintenance. The data cited are preliminary and reflect reported shipments and scheduled deliveries as tracked by trade sources.