March 4 - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its second-quarter 2026 average price forecasts for benchmark crude grades, increasing its Brent estimate by $10 to $76 per barrel and its U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) estimate by $9 to $71 per barrel.
In a note accompanying the revision, the bank said its updated forecasts rest on the assumption that reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will drive substantial declines in OECD inventories and trim Middle East oil production during March. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, was described in the note as a critical global energy chokepoint, handling about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Goldman said its outlook remains skewed to the upside and identified key risks that could lift prices further, including a longer-than-expected disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for damage at oil production facilities. The bank spelled out a scenario to illustrate the sensitivity of prices to prolonged flow disruptions:
"If Hormuz volumes were to remain flat for 5 additional weeks, Brent prices would likely reach $100, a level associated with larger demand destruction to prevent inventories from falling to critically low levels," the note said.
On market moves, Brent crude futures were near $82.57 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after settling at their highest level since January 2025 on Tuesday. U.S. WTI rose to $75.28, after settling at its highest since June. Both benchmarks have climbed roughly 5% or more over the past two trading sessions, Goldman noted in its commentary on price action.
The bank also pointed to a meaningful downside risk should shipments through Hormuz normalize sooner than expected. In addition to its Q2 2026 revisions, Goldman revised its fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts to $66 a barrel for Brent and $62 a barrel for WTI, and set its 2027 averages at $70 for Brent and $66 for WTI.
Impacted sectors: Oil producers, midstream operators, refining and trading desks are directly exposed to the price movements Goldman outlines; energy-dependent industries and broader markets may experience secondary effects through fuel costs and risk sentiment.