Goldman Sachs has revised its short-term oil price outlook, projecting that Brent crude will average above $100 a barrel in March and $85 in April, the bank said on Friday. The upgrade reflects ongoing volatility in energy markets tied to the Iran war, reported damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East and interruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures for May were trading at $100.13 a barrel at 0530 GMT, a level that places the contract on track for about an 8% weekly rise. Earlier in the week, on Monday, Brent reached $119.50 a barrel, its highest settlement since mid-2022.
Despite the near-term strength, Goldman’s baseline scenario anticipates Brent prices gradually easing back to the low $70s later in the year. The bank cautioned, however, that this path depends on the duration of current disruptions. Should oil flows remain curtailed for an extended period, Goldman warned that prices could spike to higher peaks and conclude the year at elevated levels relative to its baseline.
Goldman highlighted the outsized impact that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could have on its forecasts. The bank said a two-month shutdown of the strait - which it described as being effectively closed since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran on February 28 and noted as a transit route for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply - would raise its fourth quarter average Brent price projection from $71 a barrel to $93 a barrel.
On Thursday, the bank also adjusted its longer-term forecasts for the back end of 2026, raising its fourth-quarter price view to $71 a barrel for Brent, up from a prior $66, and boosting its WTI forecast to $67 a barrel from $62. Those revisions reflect Goldman’s updated assumptions about market balances in a scenario that includes current regional tensions and their effects on flows and infrastructure.
Context and implications
The bank’s changes underscore the sensitivity of oil prices to disruptions in key transit routes and to damage affecting regional energy infrastructure. Markets have reacted with swift price moves, reflected in weekly gains for futures contracts and volatility around intraday highs and lows.