Goldman Sachs says that without the present Iran-linked supply disruption, crude oil's fair value would likely rest in the low $60s per barrel. The bank's view, set out by Daan Struyven, co-head of Goldman global commodities research, frames the current price backdrop as rooted in a measurable hit to Persian Gulf exports and to commercial inventory levels once policy responses are taken into account.
"We estimate the fair value of crude prices based on the cumulative hits to Persian Gulf crude production and to commercial oil inventories after accounting for policy responses and assuming a Brent fair value in the low $60s without the Iran shock," Struyven wrote in a note outlining the approach used by Goldman's commodities team.
Despite the market volatility tied to the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman has retained its central oil price path. As Struyven noted, "Because the SoH flows data are noisy and the broader situation remains fluid, we have not changed our oil price forecast (Brent/WTI at $66/62 in 2026Q4 and $70/66 in 2027) but estimate the large upside risks in longer disruption scenarios."
The firm presents two complementary frameworks for assessing potential oil-price outcomes linked to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. One framework evaluates prices after uncertainty over the disruption has receded - effectively an "after the shock" assessment that measures the cumulative damage to Persian Gulf production and to global commercial inventories, while factoring in policy measures such as strategic reserve releases. The second framework examines the pricing environment during the shock itself, when markets may assign a premium to the risk that supply losses could persist.
In its risk scenarios, Goldman assumes a net supply shock to Persian Gulf exports of roughly 15 million barrels per day. Using that input, Struyven's team produces fair-value estimates for Brent under different disruption lengths. If exports were reduced by 15 mb/d for 30 days, Goldman estimates that fair-value Brent would be around $76 per barrel. A sustained 60-day halt at the same magnitude would raise the estimated fair value to about $93 per barrel.
Goldman also warns that actual market prices during an active disruption could overshoot these fair-value outcomes. If market participants begin to price in demand destruction as a mechanism to prevent inventories from falling beneath critical levels, realized prices could rise above the modeled fair values for the post-shock period.
The bank's modeling further suggests an acute near-term risk: should flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained for much of March, oil prices could temporarily surpass the peaks recorded during prior major shocks in 2008 and 2022. Goldman characterizes such a scenario as representing "the largest monthly oil supply shock on record," a situation that would likely force markets to rapidly price in demand destruction.
This assessment leaves Goldman's base forecasts intact while highlighting the asymmetric upside risk that prolonged disruptions through a key export choke point would create for oil markets.