Gold climbed sharply in the immediate aftermath of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran that led to the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as investors sought shelter in traditional havens while assessing the wider financial-market consequences of an expanding conflict.
Spot gold advanced 2.2% to $5,395.25 an ounce by 03:44 ET, remaining close to the $5,400 mark. U.S. Gold Futures rose 3.1% to $5,411.56 an ounce, reflecting the rush into the metal amid heightened geopolitical tension.
Pepperstone strategists, including Michael Brown, cautioned that the immediate price spike may not be permanent. In a note, they said it would not be surprising "to see some degree of any initial spike higher fade as trade progresses."
"Markets are notoriously terrible at accurately pricing geopolitical risk, with participants tending to flip to an extreme view, before more rational heads slowly but surely prevail," Brown said.
At the same time, Brown argued that recent events have strengthened what he described as the "fundamental bull case" for gold. He said the metal is likely to "remain the beneficiary of haven inflows in an increasingly uncertain world, with hefty retail and reserve demand both providing tailwinds too."
Brown did not rule out further gains over the course of the year. He said he would "certainly not rule out" a move toward $6,000 an ounce by year-end, while noting that such a trajectory would be uneven: "as with all these things we're unlikely to get there in a straight line."
The developments in Iran also revived concerns about potential disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial conduit for global energy flows. Those worries contributed to the broader safe-haven bid into gold, as market participants weighed geopolitical risk against economic and corporate developments.
Investors also face a busy slate of economic data and corporate earnings that could influence flows. In the first week of March, the February U.S. jobs report is scheduled for release, and quarterly results from Broadcom and Target are due — events that may redirect attention and capital across asset classes.
Key takeaways from Pepperstone's note and market moves:
- Gold rallied sharply following the attacks on Iran, driven by haven demand and concerns over oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Pepperstone warned that an initial price spike could fade as markets recalibrate, even while noting persistent fundamental support from retail and reserve buyers.
- Near-term market direction may be influenced by upcoming U.S. economic data and corporate earnings, which could shift investor focus.