Commodities February 19, 2026

Gold Pauses as Geopolitical Strains and Fed Caution Counterbalance Safe-Haven Demand

Prices steady in Asian trade, set for a weekly decline despite mid-week gains amid U.S.-Iran tensions and a firmer dollar

By Marcus Reed
Gold Pauses as Geopolitical Strains and Fed Caution Counterbalance Safe-Haven Demand

Gold held near recent levels in Asian trading after gaining over the prior two sessions, but remained on course for a roughly 1% weekly drop. Investors balanced renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and safe-haven flows against a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, while awaiting the U.S. PCE inflation report.

Key Points

  • Spot gold stood at $4,995.85 per ounce by 21:20 ET (02:20 GMT), with U.S. Gold Futures up 0.4% at $5,015.0.
  • Gold was on course to lose nearly 1% for the week despite mid-week safe-haven-driven gains, reflecting a mix of renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar.
  • Primary market drivers include geopolitical risk affecting energy and global markets, Fed minutes signaling less likelihood of imminent rate cuts that influence currency and fixed-income dynamics, and thin liquidity from Chinese Lunar New Year closures.

Gold traded with little net movement in Asian hours on Friday following two sessions of gains, yet the metal remained positioned to record a weekly decline as market participants weighed renewed geopolitical risk against signs of tighter U.S. monetary policy.

Spot gold was unchanged at $4,995.85 per ounce by 21:20 ET (02:20 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures ticked up 0.4% to $5,015.0. On the week, the yellow metal was set to fall nearly 1%, even after a sharp mid-week advance driven by safe-haven buying.

Market action this week reflected a reversal in sentiment. Early in the week, risk appetite improved as optimism around U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks eased investor caution, producing a pullback in bullion. Later in the week, however, diplomatic tensions between Washington and Tehran re-emerged and supported demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Volumes were subdued through the session, in part because Chinese markets were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, leaving liquidity thin in key trading hubs.

Escalating diplomatic strains kept a floor under bullion prices. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran it must negotiate a nuclear deal or face unspecified consequences within about 10 to 15 days, a statement that underscored the prospect of military action that could disrupt Middle East oil flows and broader global markets.

That geopolitical backdrop, however, was counterbalanced by a firmer U.S. dollar and hawkish undertones from recent Federal Reserve minutes. These Fed signals tempered expectations for near-term rate cuts and weighed on gold, which typically underperforms when the dollar strengthens.

The U.S. Dollar Index was on track to rise by more than 1% for the week - its best weekly showing in months - a dynamic that typically pressures non-yielding assets such as gold.

Heading into the weekend, market focus shifted to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, with traders awaiting the data for further clues on the likely timing of policy moves.


Market context

  • Geopolitical risk supported safe-haven flows into gold after diplomatic tensions resurfaced between the U.S. and Iran.
  • Monetary policy signals from the Fed and a firmer dollar limited further gains for the metal.
  • Thin trading volumes due to Chinese Lunar New Year closures contributed to muted price action.

Risks

  • Renewed diplomatic strains between Washington and Tehran and statements warning of possible consequences within about 10 to 15 days - this raises the risk of military action that could disrupt Middle East oil flows and impact the energy sector and broader global markets.
  • A firmer U.S. dollar - with the U.S. Dollar Index poised to gain over 1% this week - which typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold and can affect commodity and currency-sensitive sectors.
  • Hawkish signals in Federal Reserve minutes that reduced expectations for immediate rate cuts, introducing uncertainty for interest-rate-sensitive markets, including fixed income and precious metals.

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