Commodities February 18, 2026

Gold Holds Near $5,000 as Geopolitical Strains Counter Fed Minutes

Thin holiday liquidity limits follow-through after a 2% rally while mixed Fed signals support the dollar and temper bullion's advance

By Jordan Park
Gold Holds Near $5,000 as Geopolitical Strains Counter Fed Minutes

Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Thursday after a strong rally the previous session. Thin liquidity amid Lunar New Year holidays reduced momentum, while investors weighed ongoing geopolitical tensions and divergent signals from the Federal Reserve. Market attention has shifted toward U.S. PCE inflation data due Friday for clearer guidance on monetary policy.

Key Points

  • Gold remained near $5,000/oz in Asian trade after a more-than-2% gain the previous day, with spot gold at $4,971.55 and U.S. futures at $4,991.59.
  • Thin liquidity from Lunar New Year market closures amplified short-term price moves and limited momentum.
  • Geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran and stalled Russia-Ukraine peace efforts supported safe-haven demand, while mixed Federal Reserve minutes and the prospect of prolonged higher U.S. rates strengthened the dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on gold.

Gold traded cautiously in Asian markets on Thursday, holding close to the $5,000-per-ounce threshold after surging more than 2% in the session before. Thin trading conditions tied to Lunar New Year market closures contributed to muted follow-through, as participants digested both geopolitical concerns and mixed messages from the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,971.55 an ounce by 20:51 ET (01:51 GMT). U.S. gold futures slipped 0.4% to $4,991.59.

The metal climbed 2.1% on Wednesday, briefly topping $5,000 per ounce, recovering most of the losses it had experienced earlier in the week.

Trading volumes were light, with several major Asian bourses closed for holidays, a factor that can amplify short-term price moves when order books are thin.

Geopolitical risks continued to underpin demand for bullion. Market participants tracked heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, including concerns over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled nuclear diplomacy. At the same time, a lack of progress toward a Russia-Ukraine peace deal sustained broader security worries that help support safe-haven flows into gold.

Sentiment turned more cautious after minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting revealed divisions among policymakers over the future path of interest rates. Some participants noted the possibility of further tightening if inflation proves persistent, while others signaled that conditions could emerge for easing later in the year.

The prospect that U.S. interest rates may remain elevated for longer has bolstered the dollar and Treasury yields, which weighs on non-yielding assets like gold following its recent advance. The U.S. Dollar Index was largely flat after a 0.6% jump overnight on slightly hawkish Fed minutes.

Bullion typically faces pressure when borrowing costs rise because higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday for clearer signals on the policy outlook.

Risks

  • Elevated U.S. interest rates could persist, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold - impacting precious metals and currency markets.
  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lack of progress on Russia-Ukraine peace efforts create continued safe-haven demand uncertainty - affecting commodities and risk-sensitive assets.
  • Thin trading conditions due to Lunar New Year market closures can exaggerate short-term price swings and reduce market liquidity - influencing commodity and FX market volatility.

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