Commodities March 18, 2026

Gold Climbs but Stays Under $4,900 as Rate and Inflation Uncertainty Linger

PPI surprise and Fed signals keep bullion constrained even as safe-haven demand from the Iran conflict persists

By Sofia Navarro
Gold Climbs but Stays Under $4,900 as Rate and Inflation Uncertainty Linger

Gold recovered some losses in Asian trade on Thursday but remained well below key levels as mixed signals about U.S. inflation and interest rates tempered gains. Strong U.S. producer-price inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary about inflationary risks tied to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran pushed prices down on Wednesday, leaving bullion beneath the $5,000 an ounce threshold and at a more-than one-month low. Markets see no rate cuts until at least September, according to CME FedWatch, which has weighed on gold despite continued safe-haven flows.

Key Points

  • Strong U.S. producer-price inflation for February and the Fed's inflation outlook pressured gold, pulling it below $5,000/oz and to a one-month low.
  • Market pricing via CME FedWatch indicates no U.S. rate cuts are expected until at least September, which weighed on bullion despite safe-haven demand from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
  • Other precious metals modestly recovered, with spot platinum at $2,029.96/oz and spot silver at $76.0155/oz, but recent losses persisted across the sector.

Gold showed a modest rebound in Asian trading on Thursday, clawing back some losses from the prior session but still sitting well below key psychological levels as markets wrestled with mixed signals on interest rates and inflation tied to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

By 22:13 ET (02:13 GMT), spot gold had risen 0.6% to $4,847.85/oz, while gold futures were down nearly 1% at $4,849.50/oz. The price action reflected a tug-of-war between traditional safe-haven demand and rising expectations for prolonged U.S. interest-rate firmness after fresh inflation data and Fed commentary.

On Wednesday, stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price index inflation for February and the Federal Reserve's outlook for higher inflation combined to exert downward pressure on gold, dragging it below the sought-after $5,000 an ounce mark and taking it to a more-than one-month low. The Fed left interest rates unchanged that day but signaled uncertainty over the inflationary impact of the Iran war, creating ambiguity about the path of U.S. policy.

Market pricing reinforced that ambiguity. CME FedWatch showed markets were pricing in no rate cuts until at least September, a stance that acted as a headwind for bullion and offset part of the conflict-driven safe-haven bid. Since the onset of the Iran war, the yellow metal has struggled to make sustainable gains and on Wednesday slipped below a trading range of $5,000-$5,200/oz that had held for nearly a month.

Other precious metals registered modest moves on Thursday but remained in recovery mode after recent losses. Spot platinum ticked up 0.2% to $2,029.96/oz, while spot silver gained 0.9% to $76.0155/oz.

The current picture leaves gold sensitive to further inflation data and central bank commentary, as well as to developments related to the Iran conflict. For now, prices have regained some ground but remain constrained below levels that market participants had watched closely over recent weeks.


Market context

  • Spot gold: up 0.6% to $4,847.85/oz by 22:13 ET (02:13 GMT).
  • Gold futures: down nearly 1% to $4,849.50/oz.
  • Spot platinum: up 0.2% to $2,029.96/oz; spot silver: up 0.9% to $76.0155/oz.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates driven by stronger-than-expected producer inflation could continue to pressure precious metals and financial markets.
  • The inflationary effects of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran remain unclear, creating continued volatility for safe-haven assets and commodities.
  • Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates until at least September increase vulnerability of bullion to further data-driven downside moves.

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