World food prices rose in February after a five-month slide, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said, as stronger cereal, meat and most vegetable oil values more than offset declines in cheese and sugar.
The FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly movements in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 125.3 points in February, up from a revised 124.2 in January. Despite the uptick, the index remained about 1% below its level a year earlier and nearly 22% below the peak reached in March 2022.
Cereal prices were up 1.1% month-on-month. Wheat led the advance among major grains, with prices increasing 1.8% on concerns over weather in parts of Europe and the United States and on continuing logistical disruptions within the Russian Federation and the wider Black Sea region. Even with the recent rise, wheat prices were still 3.5% lower than their level a year ago. Rice prices edged higher by 0.4%, supported by continued demand for basmati and Japonica varieties.
Vegetable oil prices climbed 3.3% in February, taking them to their highest point since June 2022. Palm oil strengthened on the back of robust global demand together with lower output in Southeast Asia. Soyoil values rose on expectations of policy support for biofuel in the U.S.
Meat quotations increased 0.8% from January, driven by record prices for sheep meat and firmer beef demand in the U.S. and China. Dairy values extended a months-long decline, falling 1.2% overall, mainly because of lower cheese prices in the European Union. In contrast, prices for skimmed milk powder, whole milk powder and butter firmed amid strong demand and tight supplies in key exporting countries.
Sugar saw the largest monthly fall among FAO's components, dropping 4.1% to its lowest level since October 2020. The decline reflected market expectations of ample global supply, including record output in the United States.
In a separate FAO assessment, the agency marginally raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to a record 3.029 billion metric tons. The upward adjustment was small and mainly reflected revisions to maize and rice estimates. If realized, 2025 production would be 5.6% above the prior year.
The FAO also sees world cereal stocks rising by the end of the 2026 season, with the global stocks-to-use ratio projected at a comfortable 31.9%.
Taken together, the FAO's updates show a market where selective upward pressure on prices in February coexists with indicators of ample production and inventories in the outlook for 2025-2026. The immediate month-on-month increases were concentrated in cereals, meat and vegetable oils, while sugar and some dairy categories exerted downward pressure on the overall index.