Russia's central bank said Wednesday that increases in fuel prices were responsible for roughly 0.3 percentage points of consumer price growth in June and added another 0.2 percentage points in the first half of July, according to the minutes of its July 24 meeting.
The central bank linked the surge in fuel costs to supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. Those attacks affected deliveries across the country's 11 time zones, the minutes show, producing shortages that led to long lines at filling stations, higher gasoline prices and rationing in several areas. Officials reported the situation has stabilised in many regions since the initial disruptions.
In its assessment, the regulator estimated that the combined direct and indirect effect of elevated fuel prices on inflation will not exceed 1.5% over the entire year. That projection frames the central bank's view of how much of this year's inflation pressure stems from the recent fuel market disturbances.
At the July meeting the central bank reduced its policy benchmark rate to 14% from 14.25% on July 24. The decision to lower the rate came even as the regulator noted an inflationary spike linked to drone strikes on major oil refineries and e-commerce warehouses.
Most members of the monetary policy board indicated they saw scope for further rate cuts later in the year, the minutes said. However, the regulator also warned that the room for additional easing had narrowed compared with prior assessments.
Taken together, the minutes present a picture of a central bank balancing near-term inflationary pressures from the fuel market with its broader policy trajectory. Fuel-driven inflation has been quantifiable in the near term - 0.5 percentage points across the month of June and the first half of July - while annualised effects are capped in the regulator's forecast.
For sectors dependent on transportation and logistics, the central bank's findings underline how supply disruptions can rapidly transmit into consumer prices and influence monetary policy decisions.