The Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday forecasts that U.S. electricity consumption will proceed upward in 2026 and 2027 after reaching a second consecutive annual record in 2025.
The EIA projects total U.S. electricity demand of 4,268 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, rising further to 4,372 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027. Those projections compare with 2025's record level of 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours.
According to the report, several drivers are supporting the near-term increase in power consumption. The EIA specifically cites data centers linked to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency activities, as well as higher electricity use in homes and businesses as they shift away from fossil fuels for heating and transportation.
On a sector basis, the agency estimates 2026 power sales will total 1,541 billion kilowatt-hours for residential customers, 1,520 billion kilowatt-hours for commercial customers and 1,063 billion kilowatt-hours for industrial customers. Those estimates follow all-time highs recorded in 2025 of 1,517 billion kilowatt-hours for residential customers and 1,486 billion kilowatt-hours for commercial customers. The industrial sector's historical peak remains 1,064 billion kilowatt-hours in 2000.
The EIA's outlook also describes expected changes in the mix of generation sources as renewable production grows. Natural gas is forecast to supply about 40% of power generation in both 2025 and 2026, before edging down to 39% in 2027. Coal's share is projected to decline from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and to 15% in 2027. Renewables are expected to increase their share from roughly 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and to 27% in 2027. Nuclear power is forecast to remain at 18% through 2027.
On the natural gas consumption side, the EIA projects 2026 sales to remain at 13.1 billion cubic feet per day for residential consumers. The outlook shows commercial sector gas consumption declining to 9.7 billion cubic feet per day and industrial consumption at 23.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2026. By contrast, natural gas used for power generation is projected to rise to 36.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026.
The EIA's short-term projections provide a quantitative view of near-term demand and generation mix trends but are limited to the data and assumptions included in the report. The agency's numbers outline sector-level consumption and generation shares without attributing precise near-term price or financial impacts.
Contextual note: This article presents the EIA's short-term numerical forecasts as reported in the agency's outlook and does not extend beyond the specific projections and drivers identified in that report.