Deutsche Bank maintained a constructive view on silver, emphasizing a series of market signals that the bank says point to upside risk for its year-end target.
In a note, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh flagged a return to relative strength across white metals, noting that silver and related metals have recently begun to outperform gold again. The bank observed this move as diverging from the traditional pattern in which silver first outperforms and then partially retraces.
One key metric highlighted by Hsueh is the gold-silver ratio, which has fallen to 57. That reading sits below Deutsche Bank's longer-term assumed range of 60 to 65 for end-2026 and 2027. The ratio, which shows how many ounces of silver are required to buy one ounce of gold, is widely used as an indicator of value between these two metals.
Hsueh pointed to several indicators of strong investor positioning. He noted that the silver three-month risk reversal has climbed to its highest level of the year and has in fact reached a new 20-year high. Additionally, he observed a resumption of Shanghai M1-M2 backwardation in silver after the Lunar New Year holiday, with backwardation levels remaining above those recorded in January.
Taken together, these signals lead Deutsche Bank to view there as being upside risk to its existing year-end silver forecast of $100 per ounce, which is based on a gold-silver ratio assumption of 60.
Context within the broader precious metals complex
Hsueh also framed these silver-specific signals within a broader pickup across precious metals. He said white metals have restarted an outperformance trend against gold even as previously elevated lease rates for silver and platinum have eased. At the same time, he highlighted shifting dynamics for gold itself, noting that gold has recently crossed back into outperformance versus the U.S. dollar when assessed by its trailing 60-day beta.
That development, Hsueh wrote, supports Deutsche Bank's constructive outlook on gold, although he cautioned that there is still a long way to go before matching the degree of outperformance observed over the past two years. He added that if gold were to resume a similar magnitude of outperformance versus the dollar as it saw previously, that scenario would be more consistent with gold reaching $6,900 per ounce, versus the bank's base forecast of $6,000.
Conclusion
Deutsche Bank's note emphasizes the combination of relative price action among white metals, heightened investor positioning indicators, and renewed Shanghai backwardation as reasons to view upside risk for silver relative to its current $100 per ounce year-end baseline. The bank situates these silver signals within evolving dynamics for gold and the broader precious metals market.