Commodities June 2, 2026 01:49 PM

Dangote Refinery to Double Output to 1.4 Million bpd by 2028; Jet Fuel Surplus Seen for Export

Company moving ahead with 'ruthless replication' expansion as African demand for jet fuel lags other regions

By Leila Farooq

Dangote Oil Refinery intends to raise nameplate capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd by the end of 2028, CEO David Bird said at a London energy conference. The group has begun procurement and contract awards for a 700,000 bpd expansion described as a 'ruthless replication.' The facility currently has a substantial surplus of jet fuel available for global export, reflecting weaker demand within Africa compared with other regions.

Dangote Refinery to Double Output to 1.4 Million bpd by 2028; Jet Fuel Surplus Seen for Export

Key Points

  • Dangote plans to raise refining capacity from 650,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd by end-2028 through a 700,000 bpd expansion described as a "ruthless replication".
  • The refinery currently has a large surplus of jet fuel for global export due to lower demand within Africa compared with other regions, creating export opportunities.
  • A proposed additional refinery in East Africa could potentially increase total refining capacity to 2.1 million bpd and further influence crude and refined product flows.

Nigeria's Dangote oil refinery is planning to increase its refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2028, Chief Executive David Bird announced on Tuesday at the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

Presently operating at 650,000 bpd, the refinery is at full nameplate capacity. Bird said the company has already purchased long-lead items for the expansion and is in the process of awarding construction contracts for what he described as a "ruthless replication" project. The planned addition will deliver 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capability.

Bird highlighted that the facility holds a sizeable surplus of jet fuel that can be directed to global markets because demand across the African continent remains lower than in other regions. "We’re very grateful to be seen as a reliable, high-quality and dependable supplier able to land our product competitively all over the world," he said.

The chief executive linked market openings to disruptions in the Gulf region, noting that jet fuel has been among the products most affected by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Those developments have created opportunities for refiners located outside the Gulf to step in and supply global buyers, with Dangote cited as an example.

Looking further ahead, Bird said the group could expand overall refining capacity to 2.1 million bpd if a planned additional refinery in East Africa is developed. He framed such an expansion as a move that would strengthen the group's role in crude and refined products flows.

Reflecting on domestic outcomes, Bird observed that Nigeria has transitioned from a position of fuel scarcity to one of fuel abundance since the Dangote refinery began operations.


Conference context

Bird made the remarks during the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in London, where the company outlined both immediate procurement actions and the construction contracting phase necessary to meet its end-2028 timeline.

Operational status

The refinery is currently running at its 650,000 bpd nameplate level and is undertaking procurement and contracting steps to replicate and scale its complex refining units to add 700,000 bpd of capacity.


Implications for markets

  • Surplus jet fuel positions Dangote to be an exporter to global markets while African demand remains relatively subdued.
  • Disruptions in the Gulf region have opened opportunities for refiners outside that area to supply global jet fuel needs.
  • Additional projects, including a proposed East Africa refinery, could further alter regional and international crude and product flows.

Risks

  • Lower regional demand for jet fuel in Africa could sustain a surplus, affecting regional product balances and export strategies.
  • Geopolitical disruptions cited in the article, including the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have altered jet fuel flows and remain an ongoing source of market uncertainty.
  • Future capacity expansion to 2.1 million bpd depends on development of a planned East Africa refinery, indicating uncertainty around execution and timing for that additional project.

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