Oil prices were set to record their first weekly gain in three weeks amid mounting concern that renewed tensions between the United States and Iran could threaten supplies from the Middle East.
As of 08:00 ET (13:00 GMT), Brent crude futures were down 0.3% at $71.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slid 0.3% to $66.18 a barrel. Over the course of the week both contracts had risen roughly 5%.
Analysts at Citigroup, in a note dated Feb. 19, described a heightened geopolitical backdrop linked to a U.S. military build-up around Iran.
"Geopolitical risks have escalated as the U.S. military build-up around Iran continues," the note said. "The situation is fluid ... on the one hand, military actions could be imminent ... on the other hand, bringing the situation to the brink could be a negotiation strategy."
The bank quantified three scenarios for Brent.
- Bull case: Brent at $70-75 per barrel. This outcome assumes sustained supply risks related to Iran and Russia, while stopping short of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Base case: Citigroup projects Brent averaging $67/bbl in 1Q'26, $62/bbl across 2Q-4Q'26, and $64/bbl for 2027. The bank expects a moderate visible oil surplus of about 0.8 million barrels per day in 2026 - smaller than the headline global surplus figure of 2.2 million b/d - after accounting for China's strategic purchases of roughly 1 million b/d and an allowance for disruptions of about 0.5 million b/d. They also foresee an even smaller surplus in 2027.
- Bear case: Brent at $50 per barrel, driven by a combination of weak global oil demand growth and rising OPEC+ output even if diplomatic breakthroughs occur. In this scenario, visible surplus increases as China cuts back on stockpiling, discounts narrow and those barrels are likely to build up across major oil pricing hubs.
Citigroup also noted that if any conflict with Iran were to escalate into actual transit disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would likely move higher than reflected in their base case. The base case, however, does not assume the Strait would be disrupted for months.
These outlooks reflect the current balance between supply-risk premia driven by geopolitical developments and demand-side and inventory dynamics, particularly linked to China and OPEC+ behavior. The bank’s scenarios provide a range of potential paths for Brent that hinge on how the geopolitical situation evolves and how market participants respond to changes in stockbuilding and production.