China and the United States have agreed to expand agricultural trade after their recent summit, with Beijing committing to buy at least $17 billion of U.S. farm products annually for three years in addition to existing soybean commitments, the White House said. The pledge comes as China - the world's largest importer of agricultural goods - seeks to restore and grow purchases that fell sharply following last year's trade tensions between the two countries.
Scope and scale
Traders and analysts estimate that the $17-billion figure, on top of already pledged soybean purchases, would push China’s annual U.S. farm imports to roughly $28 billion to $30 billion. That level would remain below a 2022 peak of $38 billion but would mark a substantial rebound from last year’s figure of $8 billion and the $24 billion recorded in 2024. To reach the new target, Beijing would need to significantly increase purchases of a range of commodities beyond soybeans - including wheat, feed grains, meat and non-food agricultural items such as cotton and timber.
Soybean commitments and current buying
China has already met a commitment to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans and has taken some wheat and a large volume of sorghum, following a previous agreement. Under that earlier deal, the White House said China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. Market participants expect China to begin buying new-crop U.S. soybeans for shipments from October, with North American supplies priced competitively against Brazilian cargoes.
State-owned firms COFCO and Sinograin are anticipated to be the main buyers of U.S. soybeans while an additional 10% tariff remains in place, according to traders. U.S. soybeans accounted for about one-fifth of China’s imports in 2024, down from 41% in 2016.
Where purchases may be redirected
Higher U.S. buying by China is expected to come at the expense of other suppliers. Analysts say achieving the $17 billion annual target excluding soybeans would likely require China to reallocate purchases away from established suppliers such as Brazil, Australia and Canada. Brazil, which held 73.6% market share of Chinese soybean imports in 2025, has also become a leading supplier of corn and was recently approved for exports of distillers’ dried grains (DDGS) to China.
Australia, which served as China’s top wheat supplier in 2023 and a leading sorghum supplier in 2025, could see diminished demand if U.S. wheat and sorghum gain market share. Other exporters such as Canada and France for wheat, and Argentina for sorghum, may also experience reduced orders depending on how Beijing allocates purchases.
Corn, wheat and quota mechanics
China’s state trading entities are likely to remain the primary buyers of U.S. corn and wheat, because these volumes are largely allocated within low-tariff import quotas. Current quotas are 9.64 million metric tons for wheat and 7.2 million tons for corn, both subject to a 1% tariff. Imports above those quotas face duties of 65%.
Customs data show U.S. corn shipments to China have dwindled: China bought just $5 million worth of U.S. corn in 2025, down from $561.5 million the previous year, with shipments largely stalling after June. Wheat imports also declined to near zero in 2025, from 1.9 million metric tons worth $600 million in 2024.
Feed grains and sorghum
China is expected to boost purchases of feed grains, including sorghum, particularly after heavy rains damaged its northern crop in 2025. Unlike wheat and corn, sorghum is not subject to quotas, and since November Beijing has purchased at least 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. sorghum to fill domestic corn shortfalls.
Significant purchases of DDGS from the United States would require Beijing to lift anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs that have been in place since 2017.
Meat and regulatory moves
China is an important destination for specific U.S. meat cuts such as chicken feet, pork ears and offal - products with limited domestic demand in the United States. Imports of U.S. beef and poultry are expected to rise now that Chinese and U.S. officials will work to resolve outstanding issues.
In regulatory steps consistent with that commitment, China granted five-year registration extensions to 425 U.S. beef plants whose registrations had lapsed, and approved five-year registrations for an additional 77 U.S. facilities. Beijing also introduced a beef import quota system last December. For major suppliers, including the United States, a 55% tariff applies to imports above the quota as a protection for domestic industry.
Non-food agricultural products
China’s increased imports from the United States could include non-food agricultural items. Cotton imports to China fell to $225.7 million last year from $1.85 billion in 2024, suggesting scope for recovery if U.S. cotton gains traction. Timber and other non-food commodities are also potential components of elevated purchases.
What follows now is the practical task of converting commitments into sustained shipping and contractual flows. How quickly and fully Beijing redirects purchases will depend on quota mechanics, tariff treatments that remain in place, and the pace at which non-tariff barriers are resolved for categories such as beef and poultry.