Overview
California is seeing fuel costs rise at a faster pace than the rest of the United States as the fallout from the war in Iran places strain on refiners and shipping routes. Market observers say the state's specific fuel requirements and constrained physical connectivity to the national fuel network are intensifying the impact of international supply disruptions. Analysts forecast further increases in both retail gasoline and jet fuel prices and warn that shortages could materialize if exporters restrict flows.
Why California is especially exposed
Two structural features make California more vulnerable to outside shocks than many other U.S. markets. First, the state requires a specific, mandated gasoline blend that limits the pool of compatible supply. Second, California lacks robust pipeline access to other U.S. refining centers, isolating it from seamless domestic transfers and increasing its reliance on seaborne imports.
Those imports have become a key channel for the state, sourcing fuel from Asia. With shipments delayed or curtailed following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these lifelines are under pressure. Energy economist Philip Verleger warned in a note that the U.S. West Coast could become "the poster child for the consequences of the attacks on Iran," adding that California drivers can expect gasoline and diesel shortages soon and prices potentially exceeding $10 per gallon.
Recent price moves
Over the past month, average regular gasoline prices in California rose by more than 18%. According to AAA, the statewide pump price reached $5.42 per gallon on Friday, well above the national average of $3.63 per gallon. In aviation markets, Los Angeles jet fuel - a key aviation hub - has seen prices climb roughly 47% to about $3.85 per gallon since the Middle East conflict began, based on OPIS data.
Supply chain shifts and global responses
The shortage of Middle Eastern crude has prompted refineries in China, Korea and India to scale back production, with some firms declaring force majeure to pause deliveries during the emergency. Certain countries, including China and Thailand, have suspended fuel exports. The U.S. West Coast imported a record 128,000 barrels per day (bpd) of motor gasoline and additives last year, with the majority arriving from South Korea and India, according to ship tracking firm Kpler. The region also took in about 54,000 bpd of jet fuel, nearly one-third of which originated in South Korea.
With Korean exports likely to pause for a period and limited spare refining capacity in neighboring Washington state, West Coast refiners face constrained options for supply back-up, said Randy Hurburun, head of refining at Energy Aspects. Globally, a shortage of barrels has led to a scramble among refiners to secure crude, pushing up heavy crude prices.
Where West Coast refineries get their crude
Ship tracking data show West Coast refineries imported about 230,000 bpd of Middle Eastern crude, which represented roughly 50% of Middle East crude imports to the United States. Analysts say that oil is now at risk, forcing refiners to seek alternative sources that will carry higher costs.
"All the crude that West Coast refiners import from the Middle East is at risk," said Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler. He added that refiners are likely to turn to Canadian or Latin American barrels as replacements.
Chevron-owned refineries in Richmond and El Segundo, along with Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles refinery, were California's largest crude importers in 2025, according to EIA data cited in industry reporting. Marathon said a spokesperson indicated the company was meeting all contractual obligations but declined to comment on crude sourcing or refining. A Chevron spokesperson also declined to discuss daily operations, while noting the refineries continue to supply customers in the region.
Limits on alternative supplies
Even where alternative crude is available, access is constrained. Canadian volumes are limited by capacity constraints on the Trans Mountain Pipeline and by competing demand from Chinese buyers, leaving at best about half a million barrels available to West Coast refiners, Kpler's Smith said. Asian refiners are also expected to compete for Latin American crude from places such as Ecuador and Guyana.
"There is not a great deal of incremental supply available to U.S. West Coast refiners," Smith said. Rystad Energy's Bell noted refiners will seek to maximize Alaska North Slope shipments, redistribute whatever Canadian supply is available, and may even consider Venezuelan oil despite shipping challenges.
Policy moves and market competition
One policy tool under consideration is a temporary waiver of the Jones Act, the shipping law that requires domestic crude to move on U.S.-flagged vessels. The law makes transfers from the U.S. Gulf Coast to California more costly, and a waiver could ease some price pressure if implemented.
Market participants say competition for barrels has intensified across the globe. "All other regions are also needing barrels at this point due to a widespread panic of availability," said Debnil Chowdhury, head of refining and marketing at S&P Global Energy. "There’s competition now for the barrels."
Analysts' view on demand cuts
Philip Verleger added that West Coast states may need to reduce gasoline and diesel consumption by 20% if exporting nations restrict flows to protect domestic markets. Such a scale of demand reduction would be aimed at balancing limited supply, he said.
Implications for consumers and industry
The combination of a specific state blend mandate, limited pipeline connectivity and heavy reliance on imports from regions now affected by Middle East fighting is intensifying price volatility for California drivers and aviation operators. With several import sources curtailed and global competition for replacement barrels high, California's refineries and fuel distributors are operating in a tighter market than earlier in the year.
At present, market participants and analysts are monitoring export decisions, shipping constraints and policy responses that could alter the outlook for availability and pricing. The trajectory for prices and potential supply shortages will depend on how quickly alternate flows and logistical solutions can be arranged within the confines of existing infrastructure limitations.