Summary
Bernstein analysts say European benchmark gas prices - measured on the Dutch TTF - will likely need to rise by roughly 40% to 50% from current levels if interruptions to Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports persist. The call follows a series of supply shocks: QatarEnergy stopped production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities after a drone attack and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, constraining a maritime route that carries a sizeable share of LNG flows.
Market reaction and price levels
Energy markets reacted quickly to the disruptions. TTF has climbed to about $16 per mmBtu while Asia’s JKM benchmark moved above $20 per mmBtu and spiked as high as $27 per mmBtu earlier in the week. Bernstein’s analysts, led by Irene Himona, argue that even with these gains Europe remains a weaker bidder in the global LNG market versus Asian buyers.
At present price differentials, cargoes shipped from the U.S. Gulf generate substantially higher returns when sent to Asian markets rather than to Europe. As Bernstein put it, "At current differentials Europe is clearly losing that bidding war." The brokerage's work shows that to make European destinations competitive, TTF needs to rise further by roughly 40% to 50% from where it stands today - a move they say would be necessary "just to keep the lights on" if the Qatari outage persists beyond a few weeks.
Drivers of intensified competition
Several factors are compounding the squeeze. Asia relied on Qatar for nearly 30% of its gas imports, prompting an urgent scramble to replace that lost supply when Qatari output was halted. That scramble has driven up the JKM benchmark as Asian buyers look to secure cargoes elsewhere, exerting upward pressure on global spot prices.
Complicating matters, roughly 20% of global LNG transits the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions, with more than 85% of those volumes typically destined for Asian markets. When that route is disrupted, Asian importers are pushed into competition for shipments sourced from the Atlantic basin, including U.S. LNG volumes on which Europe has become increasingly reliant.
Supply limitations and the role of U.S. exports
Bernstein highlights a crucial supply-side constraint: U.S. export terminals are operating near capacity. With utilisation around 94%, there is limited spare export capability to rapidly scale up shipments in response to higher bid levels. The analysts note plainly, "There is no 'extra' gas being produced or LNG manufactured right now." Given that constraint, the only immediate lever to attract more cargoes to Europe is price.
As Bernstein frames the dynamic: "If you want an extra ship of U.S. gas in Berlin, you have to bid high enough to divert it away from Tokyo." In other words, Europe must outbid Asian demand if it seeks to secure incremental U.S.-sourced cargoes while Qatari supply remains constrained.
Storage and seasonal considerations
Storage conditions in Europe add urgency to the situation. The region left February with gas storage roughly 35% full, below the five-year average. Lower inventories increase the need to replenish ahead of the next refill season and heighten vulnerability if disruption persists. Even though Europe’s direct dependence on Qatari LNG is limited - approximately 8% of the region’s imports in 2025 - the interconnected nature of the global LNG market means shocks elsewhere can translate into tighter local markets and higher prices.
Implications
Bernstein’s analysis suggests that unless Qatari supply is restored quickly, Europe will face sustained price pressure and an uphill competitive battle for cargoes. With constrained U.S. export availability, Asian buyers actively replacing lost Qatari volumes, and Europe’s below-average storage levels, the brokerage concludes that materially higher TTF prices would be required to redirect sufficient LNG flows to the continent.
The scenario sketched by Bernstein reflects a market in which price signals, rather than immediate production increases, become the principal mechanism to reallocate scarce cargoes across competing regions.