Bank of America has produced a conditional outlook for European natural gas markets in 2026, forecasting Dutch TTF prices averaging €50 per megawatt-hour if losses of Gulf LNG are short-lived. The bank framed the scenario around limited interruptions to supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Analyst Francisco Blanch wrote:
"TTF may average €50/MWh this year if Qatar and UAE LNG losses are limited to ~5–6 weeks should President Trump declare a victory soon and have the U.S. Navy protect LNG vessels through the Strait."
BofA quantified the sensitivity of European gas storage to outages, estimating that each month of lost LNG supply from Qatar and the UAE represents roughly 10 percent of total European gas storage. The implication is that a protracted outage would significantly strain the market.
The bank highlighted a more severe stress case as well: around 10 weeks of lost Gulf LNG supply could push 1Q27 TTF prices above the highs seen in 2022. In such a scenario, BofA said Europe might be compelled to source additional volumes from Russia via dormant routes such as Yamal or through transit via Ukraine.
Despite those downside scenarios, BofA's base case is less disruptive. The bank assumes the conflict eases and energy flows "revert to normal by the month of April," which underpins its 2026 price projection.
Looking further ahead, BofA expects a return to calmer market conditions in 2027, forecasting Dutch gas prices will fall to €30/MWh as a surplus re-emerges.
The broader conflict has already affected global energy balances, according to the bank. With the Strait of Hormuz described as "largely shut" and assets being struck, recent spikes in Brent and TTF prompted BofA to raise its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $77.50 per barrel. The bank also expects gasoil cracks to average $30 per barrel this year amid widespread refining distress.
These projections and scenarios underline how sensitive European gas price dynamics are to short-term disruptions in Gulf LNG flows, and how refiners and crude markets have been impacted in parallel.