Bank of America has increased its forecast for Brent crude in 2026, citing a changed supply backdrop after developments in the Iran conflict have effectively removed the prior global energy surplus. The bank's research note, authored by Francisco Blanch, frames the situation as a material shift in market regimes that raises uncertainty around flows and pricing.
In the note, BofA says its baseline "regime alteration" scenario is still the most probable outcome, particularly after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated Operation Epic Fury could end "very soon." Under that assessment, the bank expects "most energy flows could revert to normal by the month of April."
But BofA also highlights a heightened risk of a tougher posture in Iran following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, a development the bank says has opened the door to "hard lining." To capture that risk, BofA has added three new scenario variants in which the conflict persists into the second, third or fourth quarter of 2026. Each of those paths would produce distinct implications for global supply and crude prices.
With the Strait of Hormuz described in the note as still largely shut and energy assets under attack, the bank now considers "hard lining 1 (where energy flows remain disrupted into 2Q26)" to be as likely as a rapid resolution. Under that outcome, BofA projects a 2.2 million barrels-per-day deficit in the first quarter of 2026, followed by a balanced market in the second quarter.
Overall, the bank sees a 1.1 million b/d deficit for the first half of 2026 before volumes normalize. Reflecting those dynamics, BofA has raised its Brent average for 2026 to $77.50 per barrel, with the second quarter averaging $80. The bank expects prices to ease in the second half of 2026 and decline to $65 in 2027 as the pre-war surplus returns. BofA expects West Texas Intermediate to trade about $5 below Brent.
BofA warns that in more severe outcomes Brent could average $100, and could rise as high as $130 if disruptions continue into late 2026. The note underscores how varying conflict durations would create very different market outcomes and price trajectories.
Implications
- Higher near-term price projections and tight first-half supply are central to BofA's revised outlook.
- Extended conflict scenarios materially increase the risk of sharply higher Brent prices.
- Normalization of flows would be required for prices to retreat to the bank's 2027 projection.