Overview
Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser told stakeholders that the oil market is currently losing about 100 million barrels each week because of ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. He said demand rationing is likely to remain in place while supply interruptions through the strait persist, and that a strong recovery in demand is expected once trade and shipping routes return to normal operations.
Supply and production capacity
Nasser stated that Aramco has the ability to reach a maximum sustainable production capacity of 12 million barrels per day within three weeks, if required. That capability, he suggested, exists as a contingency while disruptions continue to affect cargo flows through the Hormuz shipping chokepoint.
Characterizing the shock
The CEO described the energy supply shock that began in the first quarter as the largest the world has ever experienced. He linked the ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S.-Iran conflict and warned that if those interruptions continue for several more weeks, the oil market would not return to normal conditions until 2027.
Market implications and timeline
According to Nasser, continued blockage or interference with shipping through the strait keeps the market in a state of rationing, with buyers and suppliers adjusting consumption and flows to available supply. He emphasized that while Aramco could raise production to a higher sustainable level within weeks, the ultimate restoration of market balance depends on the resumption of unhindered shipping and trade through the strait.
Conclusion
Nasser’s comments outline a scenario in which short-term production adjustments by a major producer can mitigate some immediate shortages, but where sustained disruptions to maritime routes create extended market distortions. The company’s capacity to scale output is presented as a near-term tool, while the timeline for full normalization is contingent on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and related geopolitical tensions.