Major investment banks and brokerages have revised their crude oil outlooks for 2026 following an uptick in Middle East tensions that has now lasted nearly two weeks. Analysts cited ongoing disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz - a critical corridor for global energy flows - as the primary driver of near-term price strength, while continuing to flag the possibility of prices settling back later in the year.
Market moves this week underscored those concerns. Brent futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed to levels not seen since June 2022 and were set for weekly gains of more than 10% and more than 7% respectively, reflecting the market's response to supply uncertainty.
Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Thursday he would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage against the United States and Israel. That statement occurred amid a Middle East conflict that the analysts say continues to unsettle both energy and financial markets as well as the lives of millions in the region.
Brokerage forecasts and commentary
A range of forecasted price points and accompanying notes from several brokerages were published this week, reflecting divergent views on how prolonged any disruption might be and the likely path for 2026 and 2027 averages. The original tabulated advisory included the following entries:
Price Targets Brent WTI Brokerage Forecasts /Agency as of 2026 2027 2026 2027 Expects Brent to Goldman March average $75/bbl Sachs $77 12, 2026 and $71/bbl over $71 $72 $67 the next three and twelvemonths, respectively. BMI $70 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects Brent to 2026 average $67/bbland $69/bbl in 3Q’26 and 4Q’26, respectively. Citi $71 $64 $68 $61 March 11, See’s Brent 2026 averaging $75/bbl in 1Q’26, $78/bbl in 2Q’26, and $68/bbl in 3Q’26 BofA $78 $65 $73 $61 March 10, Expects Brent to 2026 average $80/bbl in 2Q’26, but average $65/bbl again in 2027 as the pre-war surplus re-emerges HSBC $80 $70 $76 $67 March 10, 2026 Macquarie - - - - March 6, Sees crude 2026 prices potentially rising to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks UBS $72 $70 $68 $66 March 4, Expects prices 2026 to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted
Those advisory notes show a spread of central 2026 estimates across institutions, as well as scenario language from some houses that ties extreme upside outcomes to prolonged closures of Hormuz. One firm explicitly noted the potential for prices to rise to $150 per barrel or higher if Strait flows were halted for several weeks; another highlighted a scenario in which prices could move toward and above $100 per barrel and into a territory of severe demand destruction at $120-plus if the disruptions persist.
Outlook and market implications
Across the brokerages, the common thread is an expectation of elevated near-term prices as markets price in supply risk, and a broad view that price stability is likely to return later in 2026 if flows normalize and pre-conflict surpluses re-emerge. The week's price action - sharp gains in both Brent and WTI - reflected immediate market sensitivity to the disruption risk tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy markets, shipping and insurance sectors, and financial markets sensitive to commodity price swings are among the areas most directly affected by these developments, according to the published forecasts and commentary.