Commodities March 16, 2026

Analysts Lift 2026 Oil Price Forecasts as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Enters Third Week

Brokerages revise Brent and WTI estimates amid a more-than-40% month-to-date oil rally and calls to protect shipping through the Hormuz corridor

By Sofia Navarro
Analysts Lift 2026 Oil Price Forecasts as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Enters Third Week

Major brokerages have increased their average oil price projections for 2026 after the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran entered its third week and oil prices jumped over 40% this month. Market commentary highlights potential for sharply higher price ceilings if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, while some forecasters expect a return toward pre-crisis surpluses over a longer horizon.

Key Points

  • Major brokerages raised their average 2026 oil price forecasts following a greater-than-40% rally in oil prices this month.
  • Several forecasters outlined scenarios in which Brent could move above $100/bbl - and in extreme disruption scenarios to $120+/bbl or even $150/bbl - if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.
  • Some firms, while increasing near-term forecasts, still project a return toward lower averages in 2027 if pre-war supply surpluses re-emerge.

Major brokerage houses have adjusted their 2026 oil price forecasts as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran moves into its third week, a period during which oil prices have risen by more than 40% this month. The shifts in forecasts come against public comments from U.S. President Donald Trump urging countries that depend heavily on Gulf oil to help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint that the text describes as having been largely blocked to oil tanker traffic by Tehran.


The reporting contains a series of firm-by-firm forecast updates and notes. Some entries in the source table are fragmented; where figures and commentary are clearly presented, they are set out below. Where the original text is unclear or partially corrupted, that limitation is noted rather than restated as a new fact.

  • Barclays - The available text indicates Barclays raised a 2026 Brent forecast to $85, up from $65 previously. Additional lines in the source link Barclays' outlook to the duration of any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting Brent could reach $100/bbl if the waterway remains disrupted, and noting different normalisation timelines of 2-3 weeks versus 4-6 weeks in alternate scenarios. The original table contains fragmented phrasing around those timing assumptions.
  • ANZ - ANZ raised its Brent forecast for Q1'26 to $100/bbl from $90/bbl, per the text available.
  • Goldman Sachs - Goldman expects Brent to average $75/bbl in 2026 and $71/bbl over the next three and twelve months, respectively. The text shows a series of prior forecast points in parentheses, indicating these figures were increased from earlier forecasts.
  • BMI - BMI's update in the source indicates an expectation of a 2026 Brent average of $67/bbl, and specific references to $69/bbl for Q3'26 and Q4'26. Parenthetical prior figures are present in the source.
  • Citi - Citi sees Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3'26, according to the available text.
  • Bank of America (BofA) - BofA's note expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26 but to average $65/bbl in 2027 as the pre-war surplus re-emerges, per the presented text.
  • HSBC - HSBC is shown raising its forecast to $80 for 2026 in the source, with prior figures in parentheses, though parts of the table are truncated.
  • Macquarie - Macquarie flagged a scenario in which crude prices could potentially rise to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks.
  • UBS - UBS's commentary in the source expects prices to move toward greater than $100/bbl and notes the possibility of more severe demand destruction territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted.

The presentation of broker forecasts in the original material includes parenthetical previous forecasts for many firms, indicating widespread upward revisions. Some rows and cells in the source table appear corrupted or incomplete; those specific fragments are not reasserted as discrete facts here because they are not clearly legible in the material provided.

Overall, the updates reflect a trading environment where potential extended disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is being priced into short- and medium-term oil forecasts, while a number of forecasters still anticipate a reversion toward surplus-driven lower prices over a longer horizon should flows normalise.

Risks

  • Prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices substantially higher, affecting energy and transportation sectors.
  • If shipping and supply routes normalise, the re-emergence of a pre-war surplus could lead to significantly lower prices in 2027, impacting oil producers and energy-related capital expenditure plans.
  • Unclear or fragmented source data limits precision on some firms' revised figures, introducing uncertainty for market participants relying on tabulated comparisons.

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