Commodities June 3, 2026 08:47 AM

Airlines Struggle as Jet Fuel Margins Surge; Hedging Not Universal, IATA Official Says

Sharp increases in jet fuel crack spreads and Middle East supply constraints are straining carriers, with some unable to shield themselves through hedging

By Derek Hwang

The head of fuel at the International Air Transport Association said many carriers are feeling severe pressure from volatile jet fuel markets and that not all airlines have hedging programs in place to protect against price swings. While sophisticated hedging can provide relief for some operators, record refinery margins and disruptions to supplies from the Middle East have amplified the industry’s pain. Demand destruction is already visible in cancelled flights and brief fuel shortages at certain airports, and the IATA official warned these problems could worsen if the conflict continues.

Airlines Struggle as Jet Fuel Margins Surge; Hedging Not Universal, IATA Official Says

Key Points

  • Many airlines have been materially affected by volatility in the jet fuel market; not all carriers are able to hedge their exposure.
  • Jet fuel crack spreads in North West Europe peaked at over $121 per barrel in March, up from about $30 per barrel before the Iran war outbreak in late February.
  • Middle East supply constraints - driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure - have curtailed production and exports, contributing to market strain.

LONDON, June 3 - The International Air Transport Association's head of fuel warned that wide swings in the jet fuel market have delivered significant blows to many airlines, and a portion of carriers lack the capacity to hedge their fuel exposure, according to remarks made on Wednesday.

Speaking at the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference, Daniel Chereau said airlines that have developed more elaborate hedging programs enjoy some protection, receiving "a bit of a cushion" when prices move sharply. However, he added that the surge in refinery profit margins for jet fuel - commonly referred to as crack spreads - has been detrimental to the airline industry.

Data referenced by Chereau show that in North West Europe the jet fuel crack spread reached an all-time high of over $121 per barrel in March. That represents a sharp rise from roughly $30 per barrel recorded before the outbreak of the Iran war in late February.

Chereau highlighted the role of the Middle East in global jet fuel supply, and said the region's ability to produce and export the fuel has been heavily restricted. He attributed those constraints to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and to attacks on energy installations, factors that have curtailed flows of jet fuel from a major producing region.

The IATA fuel chief also pointed to emerging signs of demand destruction within aviation, though he stressed this has not necessarily been driven directly by the fuel price itself. Instead, demand has been reduced when airlines cancel flights, and in some areas airports have experienced short periods when fuel supplies ran dry.

Chereau cautioned that such incidents could become more common, and that the longer the conflict endures, the greater the potential for passenger-driven demand destruction. He did not identify specific airlines or airports that have been most affected.


Contextual note - The comments reflect observations about market conditions and operational impacts shared at a sector conference. They describe patterns and risks as reported by the IATA fuel head, without naming individual carriers or locations beyond the regions discussed.

Risks

  • Further disruption to Middle East exports could tighten global jet fuel availability and sustain high crack spreads, affecting airlines and fuel logistics.
  • Increasing instances of flight cancellations and short-term airport fuel shortages signal demand destruction that could deepen if the conflict persists.
  • Airlines without hedging programs face greater earnings and cash flow volatility as refinery margins remain elevated.

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