Wolfe Research has opened coverage on Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $60.00 price objective. The equity, which has a reported market value of $3.37 billion, is trading at $43.55. Analysts' consensus is listed as Strong Buy, and current published price targets range from $44 to $66.
The research note centers on azetukalner, Xenon’s lead candidate. Azetukalner is described as a Kv7 activator being developed for focal onset seizures and major depressive disorder. Wolfe Research emphasizes that the molecule was designed to avoid the pigmentation side effects that prompted the withdrawal of an earlier-generation Kv7 activator.
On commercial potential, Wolfe Research models peak epilepsy sales near $2 billion. That epilepsy figure covers focal onset seizures as well as primary generalized tonic-clonic seizures. For neuropsychiatric indications, the firm anticipates combined peak sales exceeding $1 billion for major depressive disorder and bipolar disorder.
Key clinical milestones and timing are noted in the coverage. Phase 2b X-TOLE data for focal onset seizures was reported in October 2021, and Phase 2 X-NOVA results for major depressive disorder were published in November 2023. A Phase 3 program is underway, with the X-TOLE2 readout expected in March 2026.
Wolfe Research expects a new drug application filing in the second half of 2026 and projects a first approval in focal onset seizures in 2027. The firm also notes an anticipated loss of exclusivity in 2040.
The company has reiterated public-facing milestones that align with Wolfe’s timeline. Xenon expects topline data from the Phase 3 X-TOLE2 study of azetukalner in focal onset seizures by March 2026, and plans a New Drug Application submission in the latter half of 2026. The X-TOLE2 trial has completed enrollment with 380 patients and is part of a broader development effort that includes five additional Phase 3 studies across epilepsy and neuropsychiatric conditions.
Other broker activity has followed the flow of upcoming clinical data. Stifel raised its price target to $66 and maintained a Buy rating, citing optimism tied to the X-TOLE2 study and the potential to access a market exceeding $2 billion. JPMorgan kept an Overweight rating with a $62 price target and also highlighted the expected early-2026 topline readout. Cantor Fitzgerald increased its price target to $55 and pointed to Xenon’s broader pipeline, beyond seizure indications, as a meaningful source of value.
Context and implications
Wolfe Research’s initiation frames azetukalner as the principal value driver for Xenon, with a clear sequence of clinical and regulatory milestones through 2027. The company’s positioning and the range of analyst targets reflect marketplace focus on the Phase 3 program and the potential commercial opportunity across both epilepsy and mood disorders.
Summary of factual milestones
- Initiation: Wolfe Research, Outperform, $60.00 price target.
- Market data: $3.37 billion market value, trading at $43.55; analyst consensus Strong Buy; price targets $44 to $66.
- Lead program: azetukalner - Kv7 activator for focal onset seizures and major depressive disorder; engineered to avoid pigmentation side effects.
- Projected peak sales: ~ $2 billion for epilepsy indications; > $1 billion combined for major depressive disorder and bipolar disorder.
- Clinical timeline: Phase 2b X-TOLE (Oct 2021), Phase 2 X-NOVA (Nov 2023), Phase 3 X-TOLE2 readout expected March 2026.
- Regulatory timeline: NDA filing expected in H2 2026; first approval in focal onset seizures in 2027; loss of exclusivity projected for 2040.
- Other analyst moves: Stifel PT $66 (Buy); JPMorgan PT $62 (Overweight); Cantor Fitzgerald PT $55.