Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. with an Outperform rating and set a price target of $160.00, according to its published research note. At the time the note was issued, Neurocrine traded near $128.48 and carried a market capitalization of about $12.86 billion.
The research team flagged the companys core commercial franchise as the central driver of near-term revenue expectations. Wolfe Research projects U.S. sales of Ingrezza to grow toward $3 billion, a figure modestly above Neurocrines internal guidance range of roughly $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion for 2026. The analyst team also noted that anticipated pricing impacts from potential negotiation under the Inflation Reduction Act in 2029 have been incorporated fully into the current share price, per Wolfes assessment.
Wolfe Research assigned material upside potential to Crenessity, the companys recently launched therapy for congenital adrenal hyperplasia. The firm described Crenessity as the first newly approved treatment for this condition in seven decades and expects the product to exceed $1 billion in peak U.S. sales. For 2025, Wolfe Research projects approximately $300 million in sales for Crenessity in its first full year on the market and highlighted the drugs opportunity for substantial international expansion.
Beyond its current launches, Wolfe Research emphasized Neurocrines muscarinic-targeting development programs as a prospective growth vector. The note referenced validation of muscarinic mechanisms through robust clinical data from several programs, including an agent developed by Bristol Myers Squibb named Cobenfy, suggesting the approach has precedent for meaningful clinical effect.
On the pipeline front, the firm reviewed the data for direclidine, Neurocrines investigational asset in schizophrenia, and characterized the Phase 2 proof-of-concept results as mixed. Wolfe Research conveyed the view that positive Phase 3 outcomes would be needed to substantiate the drugs therapeutic value and indicated that direclidine could differentiate from competitors if Phase 3 confirms benefits linked to its M4 agonism mechanism.
Wolfe Research also pointed to valuation indicators that it views as supportive for investors. The research note cited a low price-to-earnings ratio relative to near-term earnings growth and reported a PEG ratio of 0.64. The analysts recommended additional, deeper diligence through their pro research materials for those seeking further financial modeling and scenario analysis.
Recent quarter and analyst moves
Neurocrine reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that slightly exceeded analyst expectations on both the earnings-per-share and revenue lines. The company recorded an EPS of $1.88 versus a consensus forecast of $1.86, and reported revenue of $805.5 million compared with an expected $802.45 million. Ingrezza sales for the quarter were $658 million, marginally under the FactSet consensus of $662 million.
Several independent research shops updated their views following the quarterly release and year-end performance. H.C. Wainwright trimmed its price target to $192 from $198 but retained a Buy rating, citing strong year-end prescription activity for Ingrezza and the positive launch trajectory for Crenessity. Truist Securities lowered its price target to $140 from $169 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting adjustments to account for higher-than-anticipated operating costs. RBC Capital reaffirmed an Outperform stance with a $177 target, noting a gap between current market valuation and their estimate of fundamental fair value. Canaccord Genuity reiterated a Buy rating with a $164 target, responding to solid fourth-quarter results.
Takeaways
- Wolfe Research initiated coverage at Outperform with a $160 target, emphasizing the combined revenue potential of Ingrezza and Crenessity.
- The firm flagged muscarinic-focused programs and the outcome of direclidine's Phase 3 trials as important future catalysts.
- Analysts differ on price targets and cost assumptions, reflecting varied views on near-term expense trajectories and long-term fair value.
This coverage note adds to a range of recent analyst assessments and reinforces the markets focus on Neurocrines commercial execution and late-stage clinical readouts as determinants of future valuation.